Amidst the world's concern for rapid developments on Afghan soil since the Taliban took control of the capital Kabul, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued a report indicating that Iran has accelerated uranium enrichment to a ratio close to that needed to make nuclear weapons.
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To this end, Tehran has used two sets of advanced centrifuges, one of which enriches uranium to a purity of 60%, the agency said. Iran used a group of 164 IR-6 centrifuges to enrich to 60% at an above-ground reactor in Natanz, the agency said in its report.
The agency confirmed that it had verified that Iran was now using that group and another group of 153 IR-4 devices for the same purpose. The US, for its part, responded to the IAEA report by calling on the Iranian ayatollahs' regime to stop the nuclear escalation, return to negotiations and fully comply with the nuclear deal.
The development is probably not entirely surprising to observers in light of the frequency of Iranian violations of the terms of the nuclear deal in recent times. There is also its confrontation with the IAEA and Iran's refusal to provide IAEA inspectors with video recorded by surveillance cameras at agreed-upon sites in recent months.
It must be said that the IAEA report is in fact self-exonerating of what is going on with Iran's nuclear program. It is currently difficult for the IAEA to know the real pace of its development, as it is no longer able to track what is happening on the ground.
All indications are that Washington has thrown a wrench into the issue of a military response to Iran's attack on the Israeli oil tanker Mercer Street in the Arabian Sea in late July, in order to increase the chances of success in the Vienna negotiations on returning to the nuclear deal signed in 2015. But here's the rub: things are getting more complicated.
Several pieces of data weaken the US position in favor of that of the Iranian ally. Foremost among these data is the new development in Afghanistan.
The rapid withdrawal of the US and the control of the country by the Taliban in a record time different from that planned by the US is another pressure on the Biden administration not only given the weakness of the Biden administration, facing strong domestic and external criticism for failing to estimate a post-withdrawal scenario and avoid the confusing scenes when US forces left Afghanistan.
Moreover, Iranian ayatollahs may feel emboldened by the departure of US forces from Iraq and Afghanistan. The Iranian ayatollahs may see these developments as a sign of declining US influence globally, which would make it difficult to obtain concessions from them at the negotiating table in Vienna.
Iran's hard line may be supported and encouraged by other major powers that want to undermine US influence on international issues. Another strong pressure on the US negotiator is the strategic confusion of the current administration.
The latter may be slow to resolve issues according to their priorities and their impact on US interests. It has found itself faced with accumulated problems that needed resolution and were organically linked in some way. There is no separation between the evolution of the Afghan issue and the fate of the Iran nuclear deal.
Nor can one separate the power of the US that President Biden has promised to restore from the scenes of people falling from US planes at the Kabul airport. Similarly, it is difficult to separate the withdrawal of US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan at close times and what will happen in any future Vienna round.
I believe that the promised US collective response to the Iranian attack on the Israeli oil tanker has been delayed and that the policy of waiting in the face of Iranian King violations will continue. What happened in Afghanistan means that there are now two neighboring hardline religious regimes and the failure of the plan to democratize Afghan life.
All of this is in the interest of the Iranian ayatollahs and increases their chances of getting major concessions from the White House, looking for a major qualitative accomplishment by any means necessary to divert attention from the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq.
In light of the above and the critical strategic variables that have resulted from the proximity of the Afghan and Iranian ayatollahs, it can be said that any substantial US concessions to the Iranian ayatollahs in the next phase will have a serious negative impact on the US reputation and global standing.
It will be perceived globally as another American defeat. It pushes the world into a new phase of polar conflicts aimed at filling the vacuum created by the American retreat. It will feed the ambitions of regional powers and their ability to spread more chaos and unrest.
And it could also accelerate an Iranian-Israeli war, especially if Naftali Bennett's government is certain that Iran is in fact close to having the bomb. The US ally will not punish them for their violations, but will make further concessions to them in order to achieve a political outcome that matters to the Biden administration.
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