Across the Middle East, countries are walking on tiptoes, trying not to make a sound. After all, when Putin roars, it's best to duck and take cover until the storm passes. The only exception has been Syria, a country under Russian occupation in its own right, which quickly voiced support for Moscow.
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Syria is relevant from Israel's perspective because Russia's intervention there was Putin's first aggressive move on his path to restoring his country's status as a leading global power. Indeed, our region is accustomed to the frightening sights and sounds currently emanating from Ukraine, and seen even worse, of course, as in Syria less than a decade ago when the full might of the Russian air force was unleashed against the "rebel terrorists" holed up in the country's now-destroyed cities. The world was a little less aghast at the time – this was Syria, after all, not the heart of Europe – but the lesson is the same lesson.
At the time, no one stepped forward to stop the Russians, which is precisely what the countries in the region consider important. They ask themselves: What will happen if Russia decides to "return" to Libya or Iraq, who were once its allies? And what if Iran upholds its threat to help the Shiites in Bahrain, or attacks the United Arab Emirates, or Qatar? Will the Americans again suffice with economic sanctions while doing nothing?
In the Middle East, there's a better understanding of and greater affinity with the Russian mentality, namely the willingness to sacrifice lives and resources on the altar of a loftier national goal, even at a painful economic cost. In the US, the national mood changes with the price of gas, which is why President Joe Biden tried in his speech last week, alongside threatening Russia, to assuage the concerns of the American public – essentially exposing not only weakness and vulnerability but also the typical Western mentality, which is almost invariably shaped through the prism of comfort and quality of life. This didn't work in the Middle East during the Arab spring uprising, when the respective peoples chose Islamic movements or, alternatively, the return of dictators over quality of life, freedom, and liberty. This also didn't work in Iran, where sanctions haven't stopped the ayatollahs; and apparently won't work in Russia either.
Arab public opinion does not favor the Americans and the West. There isn't a great deal of love for Russia either. But there is a fear of Russia, and this is important. To be sure, despite everyone's silence – and Israel's, incidentally – what happens in Kyiv is relevant, not just because of the geographical proximity to the battle zone, but because the Middle East always was and still is part of the East-West power struggle.
Meanwhile, on the outskirts of the Arab world, Iran rushed to condemn and pin responsibility for the crisis on the West, but even it refrained from expressing support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. After all, the Russians, or the Americans, could invade it, too. Conversely, Turkey fell in line with the Western camp and denounced the invasion, which bring Russia to its doorstep not just in the south in Syria, which is in Moscow's grip, but in the north as well, in the Black Sea, which is under Russian control once more.
For years, there has been discussion here of a new Middle East. It's very possible that in the wake of the new global security order, which the Russian invasion of Ukraine will establish, and in the wake of the reallocation of assets and demarcation between East and West, similar to the aftermath of World War Two – the political map in the region will also change. The distribution, at that point, won't be between Sunnis and Shiites, but between countries under the American umbrella and countries under the Russian umbrella.
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