Arab Israelis have been involved, on several occasions, in terrorist attacks over the years. Their numbers might be small, but they are the Achilles' heel of the war on terror and potentially far more dangerous than terrorists from the Palestinian territories. The blue identification cards issued to Arab Israelis not only grant them freedom of movement but also a modicum of protection from certain measures the security agencies apply to the Palestinians.
For this reason, terrorist organizations invest considerable effort – and a substantial amount of money – in trying to recruit Arab Israelis for terrorist attacks. Their ability to move back and forth across the Green Line, past IDF checkpoints, is a potent asset. During the Second Intifada, Arab Israelis were mostly used for logistical purposes, to drive suicide bombers to their targets and to harbor terrorists and weapons. In most cases, money was the primary motivation; on the rare occasion, it was ideology.
The number of Arab Israelis who carry out terrorist attacks on their own is even smaller. By and large, they choose to act within the Green Line; for instance last July, when two Border Policemen were murdered on the Temple Mount by a terrorist from Umm al-Fahm, and January 2016, when Arara resident Nashat Milhem murdered three Israelis in Tel Aviv. It is unusual for an Arab Israeli (who is not a resident of east Jerusalem) to carry out an attack in Judea and Samaria.
The modus operandi from Monday's attack shows that the terrorist, Abed al-Karim Assi, was not particularly sophisticated. It stands to reason, therefore, that he will be captured quickly. But his profile – and Arab Israeli mother and Palestinian father, with a troubled background – should have aroused suspicions among security agencies prior to his attack. Workers at Tel Aviv's Shanti House shelter for at-risk youth said Monday that Assi had been barred from the place because of his frequent visits to Nablus, and concerns that he would be exploited by terrorist elements. We can assume the police and Shin Bet security agency were aware of this. They will now have to examine how he escaped surveillance.
Itamar Ben-Gal, Assi's victim, is the second Israeli killed since the beginning of 2018. The sense on the ground that terrorist activity is swelling is not supported by the numbers: In 2017, 18 people were murdered in terrorist attacks. Throughout 2017, 54 significant attacks (shootings, car ramming, stabbing) were perpetrated, compared to four thus far in 2018. Meanwhile, this year's two deadly attacks have also been categorically different from one another. Assi acted independently, without affiliations to any terrorist group; the previous attack – which claimed the life of Rabbi Raziel Shevach – was carried out by a terror cell ideologically tied to Hamas.
Yet still, Israeli security forces need to make sure this is not the start of a new terrorist trend. Terrorist attacks have a tendency to be contagious: One successful attack can inspire others. There will never be a conclusive formula for fighting terror, but operational and intelligence-gathering efforts are now required to prevent the outbreak of a new terror wave.
