The question that even supporters of US President Donald Trump's administration are now asking is whether the Americans know what they are doing out there in the Persian Gulf. Even hawks from late President Ronald Reagan's era agree that the optimal outcome is not an all-out war but negotiated improvements to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, reached under Trump's predecessor in the White House, Barack Obama.
According to American analysts, the Iranians sense that the US is not exactly rushing into a confrontation when the outcome remains unknown. That is why they are not deterred from carrying out provocations, the height of which was Iran's downing of a large American drone in the Strait of Hormuz. They are not even deterred from a limited military conflict that would see Iran sustain mass casualties as long as the US would also come out harmed, possibly with a few broken teeth and maybe even having sustained some damage to its prestige.
But the right way to see the developments in the confrontation with Iran is from the perspective of those who, both within Israel and outside its borders, saw Obama's Iran policy as a disaster.
The position of some of the security analysts and the defense officials themselves was to ignore the premise that guided Obama's policies, which was that Iran needed to be built up as a central stabilizing force in the Middle East, so that it constituted a regional power and could serve as a counterbalance to Israel.
Seeing as Iran is not just Israel's rival, but a country with an ideology similar to that of Nazi Germany, this policy was insanely irresponsible. Ever since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran's leaders have espoused anti-Semitism, preaching that annihilating Israel will cure the world of all its ills.
As a result of Obama's foreign policy, the ayatollahs were paid no less than $1.5 billion in bribes, and of course, reaped the benefits of tens of billions more with the removal of economic sanctions. The result of all this was Iran's massive penetration into every front in the Middle East.
The changes to US policy, along with Washington's withdrawal from the nuclear deal, put Iran on the defensive. And even if the massive pressure on Iran does not bring results, it has nevertheless marked a definite change in the situation in the region: The Iranians, who use their proxies to attack southern Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gaza Strip, are for the first time being forced to adopt a defensive stance close to home. As a result of the increasing economic pressure, the resources they can allot to Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are shrinking.
Pressure should now be directed at European countries, first and foremost among them Germany, which treats Iran better than it treats Israel. Europe has kept its foreign policy – which sees it signaling to Iran that it will serve as the protective shell against US sanctions – in place. Canceling the alternative financial system that helps Iran bypass sanctions will help push Iran to renegotiate the 2015 deal.
Another element that encourages the Iranians to refuse to renegotiate the deal is the freeze, let alone failure, of US negotiations with North Korea. In Israel, it was the assessment one year ago that the results of these talks with Pyongyang would have a large influence on Iran. The Iranians, it seems, have been negatively influenced by what has transpired there.
