After officially joining the NATO alliance on March 11, questions are being asked about the alliance's future vision of threats and its relations with Russia, as well as the impact of expanding membership on the alliance's role and worldview, after Hungary approved Sweden's membership of the alliance, since it was the last country to reject membership.
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NATO has expanded to 32 member states (from 12 when it was founded in 1949), including 3 of the permanent members of the UN Security Council. However, expansion does not guarantee increased deterrent capability. The alliance faces two major challenges in the period ahead.
The first concerns how to deal with the Ukrainian crisis: will the alliance remain on the sidelines of the crisis, far from any direct intervention, or will it be involved, even indirectly, if some of its members send forces to fight in Ukraine? The second challenge lies in the possibility of former US President Donald Trump returning to power, given the stance he took during his election campaign in taking a hard line on the financial commitments of alliance members, repeatedly declaring that the US should not defend NATO countries that fail to pay their dues.
This statement came after Trump said last month that he would encourage Russia to do whatever it wanted against any NATO member state that did not contribute enough to the alliance's budget. There is every indication that Russia is taking European discussions and debate about sending forces to Ukraine very seriously.
Moscow has called for a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine on March 22, due to "devious" statements and moves by the West.
The First Deputy of Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyanskiy said that a number of irresponsible European politicians wanted to escalate the Ukrainian conflict to a higher level, where it would no longer be an indirect conflict, but a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.
Polyanskiy pointed out that it was difficult to interpret French President Emmanuel Macron's comments on the need to send NATO forces to Ukraine as anything other than preventing the collapse of the Kiev regime.
Russia's attempts to put pressure on NATO don't stop with President Macron's statements about not ruling out sending forces to Ukraine, but also include the leaked audio recording discussing potential plans to attack the Crimean bridge, in which German officers discuss how to help the Ukrainians destroy the bridge and targets inside Russia, expressing concern that their direct involvement in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is being exposed.
Russia is exploiting this conversation to promote the idea that military advisors from several NATO member states are present in Ukraine to help Ukrainian forces select targets for their strikes.
This is not a fictitious idea, as former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl claims that forces from several Western countries are indeed present on Ukrainian soil and fighting alongside Kiev's forces, a known reality.
Consequently, Russia views with concern NATO's Nordic Response 2024 maneuvers in Norway, Finland and Sweden, involving more than 20,000 troops from 13 alliance member states and lasting until mid-March, as a provocation that creates additional risks in northern Europe. In short, tensions between Russia and NATO are rising significantly.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the West was trying to legitimize the idea of sending NATO forces to Ukraine.
This statement seems largely realistic despite official denials from NATO officials or other European leaders and officials, as Macron's idea has been echoed by other leaders, including Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who recently confirmed that the possibility of the West sending its military to Ukraine could not be ruled out given the current situation on the contact lines and the development of the Ukrainian crisis.
Vucic explained, "A lot of difficult situations are ahead of us. When Western tanks in Ukraine were first mentioned, many said that this will never happen, but it happened. Western planes were mentioned and many said it will never happen but it happened."
He added: "Now talk is about Western troops in Ukraine. Some say that this will not happen, but it will." This is the same essence as Macron's statement, which merely said that there is currently no consensus on this measure, implying the possibility of building an Atlantic consensus at a later time.
The implication of the Serbian president's statement is that there is something being discussed behind the scenes, and that Macron's statement was not arbitrary, but rather closer to a political trial balloon, as I pointed out in a previous article. NATO expansion coincides with a state of uncertainty that prevails in Europe, in the words of the French foreign minister.
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Europe is deeply concerned about the growing likelihood of Russia winning its war against Ukraine, a scenario it greatly fears.
It also comes at a time when former President Donald Trump could return to power in the US, with all that this implies for NATO partners, who make no secret of their doubts about the US' continued commitment to defending Europe's security or ability to resist these threats in the first place.
This timing coincides with Russian reports that NATO's attack plans against Russia are not on the shelves of military chiefs, but on their tables.
