With major powers evacuating their nationals, the crisis in Sudan has fallen off the international community's radar. It appears that the world is overburdened with issues and humanitarian crises, leaving little room for new concerns. This has led to the escalating humanitarian suffering in Sudan being largely overlooked.
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According to international reports, the fighting that began about three weeks ago has resulted in hundreds of deaths and the displacement of over half a million people, with 25% seeking refuge in neighboring countries. The primary problem lies in the potential outcomes of the current fighting, with huge increases in displaced persons and refugees expected. Western intelligence circles anticipate the conflict to continue for a prolonged period, given both sides' conviction that military settlement is the only solution and the inability of mediation parties to provide sufficient incentives for concessions.
UN reports warn that continued fighting could leave up to 2.5 million Sudanese at risk of hunger and malnutrition, with the number rising to 19 million in the next three to six months if the fighting persists.
A recent report by The Guardian highlighted one of the dilemmas of the expected humanitarian crisis: Sudan's neighbors have nothing to offer the displaced. Already plagued by drought, food shortages, armed conflicts, economic crises, inflation, poverty, and high prices, neighboring countries to Sudan cannot be expected to take in refugees. As displacement due to the fighting will only compound these countries' suffering, the displaced find themselves out of the frying pan and into the fire.
To prevent further calamity, international efforts must intensify to pressure the conflicting parties in Sudan to end the fighting swiftly. The continued mutual shelling only amplifies Sudan's losses, not only in terms of human life but also the chasm that the crisis has created in Sudanese society on security, livelihood, and social levels.
With Khartoum grinding to a halt and public services going down the drain, these complications will not resolve quickly. The tragedy lies in the two generals fixating on a zero-sum battle with no possibility of complete victory for either side, resulting in a war of attrition akin to those in other Arab countries.
Despite their lofty declarations of interest in Africa, the major powers that organize summits and conferences have yet to take appropriate political and diplomatic action to prevent the crisis in Sudan, for various reasons.
One of the reasons is that these countries lack the influence and power to make a significant impact. For example, the US threatens sanctions and participates in mediation efforts with Gulf countries, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but lacks the necessary tools to achieve its goals. Other reasons include a preoccupation with the situation in Ukraine, which has overshadowed the situation in Africa and explains Europe's absence.
Moreover, other international parties, such as China, have not yet accumulated enough power, influence, and relationships to exert strong pressure on the main belligerents in this Afro-Arab country.
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