Monday night's strike in Syria again proved Israel's strategic superiority in the northern sector.
Much like the dozens of strikes before it, attributed to Israel by the foreign media, the strike demonstrated that given accurate intelligence, Israel will eliminate anything that threatens to cross its red lines.
The strike, which targeted military outposts in Qutayfeh, a northeastern suburb of Damascus, most likely aimed to foil another one of Hezbollah's many attempts to get its hands on advanced weapons. According to foreign media reports, the targets were repositories housing precision missiles bound for the Lebanon-based Shiite terrorist group.
The Syrian army boasted that its air defenses intercepted at least two of the missiles fired at the targets, but past experience has proved such claims are nothing more than hollow statements.
While Syria has various anti-aircraft systems, it is highly doubtful that it has the ability to foil strikes or shoot down projectiles reportedly fired from Lebanese airspace and the Golan Heights.
It appears the Syrian army's statement was made for internal purposes. Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime is rapidly recovering from the waning civil war and it is now in control of vast areas in the country. Damascus cannot afford to appear helpless against Israeli strikes. But given its lack of actual ability to mount a response, it confines itself to propaganda.
Still, the Syrian army's assertion that it intercepted Israeli missiles cannot be taken lightly, precisely because it was made when Assad's regime and military are still working to rebuild their confidence. For now, it seems Israel can operate freely in Syria and strike whenever and wherever it sees fit.
This will not always be the case. At some point, someone will strike back.
But that someone is nowhere to be found at this point, as Assad is still licking his wounds and there is little chance of him voluntarily provoking a war with Israel. Russia will not make a move unless its regional interests are compromised, and Iran – the most destructive element in the Middle East – is currently preoccupied with domestic unrest.
In the anti-government protests that swept through Iran in late December, Iranians spoke out against Tehran's involvement in Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip and the money spent there at the expense of the Iranian public. This is a cause of great concern for the ayatollahs' regime, and Iran is likely to try to lower its profile in Syria for a while.
Israel is likely to take advantage of these circumstances to try to improve its regional position.
Iran remains geared toward cementing its strategic hold on Syria, but given that its only attempt so far to do so was thwarted in early December, when a facility earmarked for use by Iranian forces was destroyed, it is unclear when it will resume its efforts. Meanwhile, Israel remains vigilant.
The IDF's most recent annual intelligence assessment says that while chances of war with Syria in the foreseeable future are low, chances of an unexpected flare-up on the northern border are high.
An escalation of this kind may follow the strikes attributed to Israel in Syria. At some point, Syria will choose to retaliate, rather than contain such incidents.
This possibility requires the IDF to continue to remain vigilant and act judiciously. Israel must make sure that a surgical strike, regardless of the significance of the target, will not spiral into a war it does not want.
