Even though the recent round of fighting against Iran in the north ended with a clear Israeli victory, make no mistake: this is but one battle in a prolonged campaign. The Iranians will undoubtedly come back, more determined and better prepared.
An analysis of the events of the last several days suggests that prior to its rocket salvo on Wednesday, Iran tried to mount an assault on Israel on Tuesday, in retaliation for recent strikes on Iranian targets in Syria. The main factors delaying Iran's response – the parliamentary elections in Lebanon and U.S. President Donald Trump's decision on the Iranian nuclear agreement – had concluded by Tuesday evening. Israel discovered that Iran was preparing to launch projectiles at Israel and rapidly thwarted the Iranian efforts, destroying the launcher designated for the attack along the way.
Israel's actions put the ball back in Tehran's court. Iranian Quds Force Commander Maj. Gen. Ghasem Soleimani likely realized that he didn't have too many tricks left up his sleeve and decided to take immediate action, to avoid losing the little advantage he had left.
The salvo Iran launched at Israel on Wednesday was most cautious, targeting only Israeli military bases on the border, and the performance of the Shiite militias under Soleimani's authority was abysmal – only four of the 20 rockets fired managed to reach Israel, and those few were intercepted.
Israel response, which had been prepared in advance, included strikes on 50 Iranian targets in Syria. Israel was clearly seizing the opportunity to disrupt as much as possible Iran's entrenchment in Syria. Along the way, the Israeli strikes also destroyed five Syrian anti-aircraft missile batteries that had fired projectiles at Israeli aircraft, comprising about half of Syria's air defenses.
Israel should feel optimistic about the outcome of this campaign. Iran failed to exact its revenge on Israel, but still paid a heavy price. Syria was also dragged into the melee, itself paying a price (though it stands to reason that Russia will now supply Syria with new air defense batteries).
Russia, for its part, has not expressed any particular interest in these clashes, allowing Israel to take advantage of its military superiority to preserve the red lines it had set and gain important victories. Part of the victory was that Israel proved once again that no one in the region can rival Israel's quality intelligence and impressive air force performance, which allows Israel almost complete freedom of action.
Still, there is no guarantee that this trend will continue. The Iranians are a bitter enemy, stubborn and determined, and most importantly, they know how to draw conclusions and learn their lesson. Since Iran is intent on establishing a military presence in Syria, and has no intention of backing down, Soleimani will surely analyze his mistakes and do much better next time. He will continue looking for Israel's weaknesses (perhaps they will temporarily revert back to targeting Israeli and Jewish targets abroad) and challenge Israel at every opportunity. This means that even if the current battle ends, the war is far from over. Israel will have to continue fighting for its principles, and it won't be able to avoid paying a price.
But for now, Israel's focus has shifted from the north to the south. Jerusalem Day is this Sunday, the U.S. Embassy move to Jerusalem is scheduled for Monday and Nakba Day – the Palestinian commemoration of the calamity that befell them with the establishment of Israel in 1948 – falls on Tuesday. Ahead of these events, tensions have grown significantly more pronounced in Judea and Samaria, not to mention the Gaza Strip, from which Hamas is planning a mass march across the border on Monday and Tuesday.
Just like in the north, Israel's superiority in the south is clear. The challenge will be much more complicated, however, because rather than targeting military positions, the enemy in the southern arena will be targeting civilians. So while the Israeli military has proven the strength of its resolve in recent weeks to foil incursions into Israel and attacks against its security interests, it seems that in this instance, the challenge to Israel will be much greater.
