Meir Ben Shabbat

Meir Ben Shabbat is head of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, in Jerusalem. He served as Israel's national security advisor and head of the National Security Council between 2017 and 2021, and prior to that for 30 years in the General Security Service (the Shin Bet security agency or "Shabak").

Statements are not enough

Relations between Israel and the Gulf partners to the Abraham Accords do not hinge on the Iranian issue but they cannot escape its specter.

 

The importance of the Negev Summit taking place in Israel cannot be overstated, but the festivity of these historic moments is clouded by the troubling approach of the Biden administration to urgent regional issues, chief among them are Iranian aggression and the emerging nuclear deal.

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It will be said immediately that the relations between Israel and the Gulf partners to the Abraham Accords did not about because of the Iranian issue nor would it be right to create the impression that it is the linchpin for existence or the main element shaping them.

At the same time, given the Islamic republic's immense regional influence, it would be unlikely that it would be absent as an agenda item from any political or diplomatic event in our region at this time.

To some extent, the fact that the Americans are taking part in the Negev summit constitutes a united front by the countries of the region vis-à-vis the US.

Regional leaders are well aware of the fact that the old-new nuclear deal the Biden administration is about to ink with Tehran will provide the Islamic republic with a legitimate path to a military nuclear program, afford it billions of dollars, and bolster it militarily, economically, and politically.

Such an agreement will change regional order and constitute existential threats and its prospects are such that it is impossible to maintain a political routine that separates the Iranian issue from the other issues.

Washington's concessions on levers that would force Iran to enter into a longer and stronger agreement, as well as the hesitant US response to Iran's demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from its terrorist blacklist, and the decision to exclude the Houthi rebels – who only last week vital oil supply sites in Saudi Arabia – provide good reasons for the skepticism that exists in relation to the US policy in the region.

For the summit to exceed the importance derived from its very existence, the US must be able to convince Gulf leaders of its commitment to preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, stop its aggression, and exact a painful price from Tehran for sponsoring global terrorism by proxy.

It is likely that the Americans understand that they are expected to show that the summit was not called simply to sugarcoat the situation or mitigate criticism of their policies.

The statements made by the Biden administration are important but they are not enough. The images of war in Ukraine are a stark reminder of their limited power. It is expected that the US will learn this lesson with respect to Iran.

Even with this in mind, it is still difficult not to be moved by a photo of the foreign ministers of Egypt, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, standing alongside the US secretary of state and the Israeli foreign minister – near the grave of Israel's first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion's in Sde Boker.

The Abraham accords are becoming tangible before our very eyes and their vision is blending into regional norms, reflecting hope and optimism, even in the face of troubling trends.

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