The strategic steps being taken in Judea and Samaria must be done in coordination with the US. At the same time, Israel must maintain a delicate balance between the need to achieve its national goals, a reasonable response to Palestinian aggression and recalcitrance, and the fears of Jordan. This balancing act requires that Israel refrain from integrating millions of West Bank Palestinians into its boundaries in order to maintain its pluralistic, democratic, and Jewish identity.
The response to Palestinian recalcitrance and aggression, and the strategic fears of Jordan, calls for isolating the Palestinians in the West Bank, and by proxy the millions in Gaza, from the Hashemite kingdom. To achieve this isolation, it is best not to apply Israeli sovereignty to all settlements in Judea and Samaria. Additionally, to ensure the Israeli response to the Palestinians and Jordan, it is best to strive for establishing permanent Israeli rule in the Jordan Valley.
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In 2014 General John Allen, the security adviser to former Secretary of State John Kerry, suggested a plan that was based on much goodwill yet little understanding of the conditions in the Middle East.
The plan was drawn up by dedicated officers who made notable achievements for their country during an era of strategic failure in Afghanistan and Iraq. The plan included Palestinian sovereignty in the Jordan Valley. The answer to Israel's security fears would be sensors, unmanned aircraft, satellites, and other technological devices. There was also talk of foreign troops, possibly American, being stationed along banks of the Jordan River, and a possibility of a US-Israel deal ensuring American support for unilateral moves by Israel when responding to threats on its security.
Establishing control in the Jordan Valley entails abandoning the delusional idea of Israeli and Jordanian security based on technology and foreign presence. What Israel needs is not information on threats and the hope that someone else will respond before it's too late. Rather, it needs deterrence that comes with a good chance of prevention and an Israeli force that will neutralize threats when needed.
A scheme like the Allen plan is much worse than no arrangement at all. Without it, Israel acts "defiantly" against threats when it sees them, and foreign diplomats protest after they are successfully neutralized. Since decolonization in the mid-20th century, the fate of a foreign military presence in sovereign land of a hostile country has been grim. This scheme will postpone and sterilize the Israeli response to perceived threats and will give the Palestinians an effective tool to damage Israel's relations with the US. Endangering the lives of US soldiers by defending Israeli territory will eliminate the independent discretion of Israel in vital issues. And principally: this format will encourage constant friction and provocations between the Israelis, Palestinians, and Americans.
It's important to take such a harmful option off the table. If it were possible to ensure the current situation in the Jordan Valley, there would be no need to discuss sovereignty now. The main reason it has arisen is the renewed discussion on the Palestinian issue and the distress it causes the Jordanians. Democrats in the US will increasingly disapprove. The EU and some of its unfriendly states may cause trouble. The UN and the Hague will draw up anti-Israel initiatives.
The Arab streets may awaken. The Palestinians, as always, will go berserk. Jordan will have to protest vigorously and may even suspend diplomatic ties and call back its ambassador. All these are grave possible consequences, but if Joe Biden is elected, the US is expected to return to the sterile route that strives for an agreement between Israel and Palestinians based on the outline of Allen's plan. Applying sovereignty in the Jordan Valley will improve Israel's negotiating position in the battle against this terrible format.
Jordan is expected to return to its normal pattern of behavior in every confrontation: to be happy deep in its heart about Israel's achievements, and to shout loudly on behalf of the Palestinians. The physical isolation of the Hashemite kingdom from the aggressive subversion of the Palestinians in West Bank calms the regime in Amman. The need to differentiate itself from Israel, due to radical internal elements, causes the Hashemite king to respond to Israeli actions in a more aggravated manner. That's how it's been for decades, and that's how it most probably will be in the future.
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