The question that echoed throughout the Knesset building this week was "What does MK Nir Orbach want?" The Yamina MK, who announced this week that he was resigning from the coalition, made a series of startling decisions and found himself in limbo.
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Supporters of the government are angry at him for speeding up its dissolution, but pleased he did not join efforts to bring it down this week, while its opponents still suspect that he'll go back and help keep it in place. But they are happy, of course, he has shaken it up.
On Monday, New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar is slated to bring his Judea and Samaria bill to a vote. If it doesn't pass, the path to the dismissal of the Knesset will become a highway. Orbach is expected to support the bill in a preliminary reading, and from there it's only a short step to the government breaking up entirely. If it passes, with help from the Joint Arab List or some other way, the government might buy itself a few more months, maybe until after the Knesset returns from its summer recess.
There is a wide gap between MK Idit Silman's act in resigning from the coalition (and Amichi Chikli's, before here) and what Orbach did. Silman chose to present her move as an ideological choice. Orbach's decision seems more like the National Religious Party's politicking in the 1990s. An attempt to close a deal with the Likud without cutting ties with the coalition, bringing Bennett down while also helping him up.
Orbach and Bennett's fourth conversation since the failure to pass the Judea and Samaria amendments in the plenum was the toughest. Bennett tried to get Orbach to say he would not help dissolve the Knesset, but Orbach didn't respond. Bennett, who was trying to convince Orbach to give him a chance to right the ship, lost his patience.
In the conversation, Bennett also made use of US President Joe Biden's upcoming visit. This is a very sensitive diplomatic event, particularly for the Right. "You can imagine what will happen if Lapid is prime minister during the visit," Bennett scolded Orbach. "He'll go along with all the American demands, it would really work against the interests of the Right."
Despite the development, which worked to its benefit, the Likud expressed reservations that even the bricks falling out of the coalition wall might not be enough to break up the government in the few weeks remaining until the summer recess. For the government to fall, action must be taken, such as passing a law to dissolve the Knesset. Other than the question mark over Orbach's head, they aren't sure how members of the Joint Arab List would vote.
Publicly, Ahmad Tibi, Ayman Odeh and their friends say they'll vote in favor of dissolving the Knesset, but who knows what they'll do when the time comes. The coalition campaign that an end to this government spells the return of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could influence them. Usually, there wouldn't be a need for 61 votes to pass a bill to dissolve, and it would be the government who would initiate the move after its leader realized that it had failed to function. Many prime ministers have done this, but the current government has lost any sense of shame. The prime minister is already feeling the distress. But Bennett cannot break up the government on his own, lest he lose out on serving as interim prime minister.
Despite the daily humiliations in the Knesset, it seems like Yair Lapid is even more determined and uninhibited than Bennett when it comes to this issue. The sense is that everything can be sacrificed to preserve the stability of the coalition, even if it means working with the extremists on the Joint Arab List.
Meanwhile, the gentlemen's fight for interim prime minister is being waged through winks and insults. Everyone is trying to bring down the government without making the battle to do so public, thereby arousing the ire of their colleagues. Lapid would very much like to see Orbach be the one to hit the button. Bennett would like it to be Rinawie-Zoabi and Ghanaim. The big question, which remains unanswered, is what Gideon Sa'ar wants.
According to the coalition agreements, Sa'ar is part of Bennett's camp. If he or his people vote to dissolve the Knesset, the government will fall and Lapid will be named interim prime minister there and then. Theoretically, Sa'ar should prefer Bennett as prime minister, but actually, Bennett is afraid of what Sa'ar might decide to do.
If there is an election, Yamina and New Hope will begin talks to run on a joint ticket. Separately, they will both have difficulty passing the minimum electoral threshold. Bennett is worried that a joint ticket would lead to questions about who the leader is. For him, handing the reins over to Sa'ar is not an option, but to ensure that doesn't happen, he needs to remain prime minister.
Let us not forget that the scenario of a right-wing government already exists. To make it a reality, the Knesset would have to be on the verge of dissolving itself – like it was when Shaul Mofaz joined Netanyahu's government moments before it dissolved in 2012. The architect of that agreement, Zeev Elkin, is currently pulling the strings for another possible deal. Back then, he was in Netanyahu's service, but now he is acting on behalf of Sa'ar, but Elkin will always choose the longest and most convoluted distance between two points.
Sa'ar, and certainly not Bennett, won't hand power over to Netanyahu on a silver platter. But what we are seeing now, with the government still intact, is not what we'll see when the threat of an election is in the air. When political futures are at stake, people become more flexible.
Netanyahu isn't depending on that scenario coming to pass, but he will not reject it if he concludes that he could lead a stable government. In any other scenario, he would prefer an election. Polls show the Likud climbing to 36 seats. In conditions like these, Netanyahu has to reason to fight to cancel party primaries, and the prevailing belief is that this time, they are almost certain to take place. Even attempts to secure reserved slots on the party list aren't expected to raise any particular difficulties. This is good news for Silman, and Orbach, if they decide to cut ties with Bennett, as well as for Chikli, if his resignation could be rolled back through either a court ruling or legislation.
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