The State of Israel is currently contending with the fifth, Omicron wave of the coronavirus. The Omicron variant is characterized by a high reproduction rate. Every person who contracts the virus variant infects another two to three people.
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Under such conditions, the number of infections in Israel will double in days, and at the height of the wave is expected to reach tens of thousands of infections a day. On the other hand, research findings point to Omicron causing more mild illness, particularly among those who received a booster dose of the vaccine. A booster shot has been proven to be 88% effective at preventing hospitalization with the virus.
The question is how many people will be hospitalized in serious condition at the peak of the wave. Will this many patients overwhelm hospitals, or will they be able to contend with the situation? This number will be derived from the reproduction rate of the various variants, the rate of vaccination with a third dose of the vaccine that prevents serious illness, and the distribution of morbidity across various age groups. Experts believe that at the peak of the wave, 2,750 Israelis will be simultaneously hospitalized with the virus.
To this assessment, we must add the fact that unlike last year, when there were barely any cases of the flu, this year, the internal medicine departments are filled with flu patients. If a lot of people are hospitalized with the coronavirus as well as the flu, then this will significantly impair hospitals' ability to provide medical treatment.
The new medicines arriving in Israel can change this scenario and bring down the number of hospitalizations of people in serious condition by up to 90%. The public can also enlist in the effort to lower morbidity in general and severe morbidity in particular by getting their third dose of the vaccine and vaccinating children.
Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer is currently leading a first-of-its-kind study on the efficacy and safety of a fourth dose of the vaccine. Initial finds are encouraging. When Health Ministry Director-General Nachman Ash authorized the fourth dose for medical workers and those aged 60 and over, I rushed to get the jab. I see it as an important step in protecting my health and the health of those around me, as well as a matter of mutual responsibility.
Alongside the understandable sense of uncertainty, there is in a pandemic, it is important to present an optimistic scenario for the future. The Omicron variant multiplies mainly in the upper respiratory tract, in the nose and the sinuses, which is why it is so contagious. On the other hand, to the best of researchers' and doctors' knowledge, it causes less damage to our health. As a result, we have seen an eight- to nine-fold decrease in severe morbidity from Omicron in comparison to the Delta variant.
The spread of a highly contagious variant, which certainly causes mild illness among the vaccinated, and as a result, serves to lessen the load on hospitals and the number of those in critical condition who require intensive care, is an important step in the path to our being able to live with the disease. We can cautiously assume that the infection of hundreds of thousands will lead to an increase in herd immunity that will allow us to begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
There are challenging days ahead in which we are expected to see 50,000 infections a day. But we can defeat this wave the same way we overcame the ones that preceded it. To do so, management of the pandemic must be based on three components: vaccines, with an emphasis on third and fourth booster doses; the provision of medicine to those at risk; and the bolstering of the health system. Beyond all that, we must all decide to exhibit personal responsibility by masking and avoiding large gatherings and events.
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