The announcement by MK Idit Silman, who until Wednesday was chairwoman of the coalition, that she had decided to withdraw from that same coalition changes the country's political picture, and not necessarily as we might expect.
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Silman can join the Likud, but she won't run for the next Knesset on the list of any current party, unless a third of Yamina leaves the faction. She could be promised a ministerial portfolio in a future government, but no one can guarantee her that a government will be formed that can offer her a place at its table. She is definitely taking a risk.
If the issue around hametz (leavened bread products) during Passover is the true reason for her departure, there is no doubt a compromise can be found. There is no way of not implementing the High Court's ruling on the matter, and Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz did right in instructing hospitals not to have their security staff make sure that no one brings hametz into hospitals. But because the emphasis of the ruling was that security guards are being asked to carry out a task that is not part of their job, the hospitals' kashruth supervisors could take up positions at the entrance for the week of the holiday and ask visitors not to carry in hametz.
If the hametz issue was just an excuse, and Silman made a deal with the Likud without any connection to Passover, then we are seeing a new chapter in the story of the Bennett-Lapid government. The Opposition will not be able to form a government unless the Joint Arab List supports a right-wing government under Benjamin Netanyahu. But even if a coalition led by Netanyahu is an impossibility, it could prevent a budget from being passed, just like it could stop the current government from passing any law it wants.
The Likud will probably make a herculean effort to pull at least one more MK out of the coalition. This won't enable it to establish an alternate government, but according to the coalition agreement, it would automatically see Bennett replaced by Foreign Minister Yair Lapid until the next election, which would be held a few months later. Paradoxically, what would appear to be a victory fo rhte Likud could wind up being an advantage for the center-left parties, which would have – at least for a few months – a prime minister from their own camp.
But if that doesn't happen – in other words, if the coalition doesn't lose more MKs but is also unable to expand with help from some Joint Arab List members – there is another possibility, and that is a national unity government headed by Benny Gantz. Gantz could lay out a few important conditions for that move. For example, he could stipulate that the Religious Zionist Party not join the coalition; allow the factions that make up the current coalition to join the next one; and avoid a rotation. An important diplomatic condition would be to relaunch the negotiations with the Palestinians for a permanent peace deal that were stopped in 2014.
Netanyahu, according to media reports, raised similar options in his desperate negotiations last year to prevent the Bennett-Lapid government A situation in which he returns to the stage for an entire term in a role in which the law allows him to serve could be a major success for him and for the Likud.
The center-left bloc should have the following goals: first – to avoid a fifth election in the near future. This was the main reason why the Bennett-Lapid government was formed, and should continue to be a goal at the current political crossroads. The frequent political shakeups could have major ramifications, both at the diplomatic-security level and in terms of the economy, and we must not go back.
The second goal should be to prevent a government under Netanyahu's leadership. His long years in power did ill by him, and the cloud of corruption that engulfs his trial should be enough for him not to return to the prime minister's seat.
The third goal should be to keep the "thugs" that hold some of the Religious Zionist seats and sully the status of MKs from holding any positions in a unity government. If all these goals are met, it might be possible to congratulate Horowitz about the excuse he gave Silman, and her, for making the decision.
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