The Left is weak and divided; Zionist Union Chairman Avi Gabbay can't lead, Yair Lapid isn't taking off, Meretz and Labor are moving farther left and it all looks like preparation for a landslide defeat in the next election. Amid this backdrop, it's difficult not to understand the exaggerated declarations of hope from the leaders of the Right – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Habayit Hayehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett – who want their parties to win half the seats in Knesset in the next election. This euphoria, however, is dangerous, and it's this atmosphere that should ring the alarm bells.
Politics, as we know, is war by other means. As such, it comprises all the elements of a battlefield that make war an exercise in uncertainty: battle fog, "friction" with the enemy, deception and morale. Clausewitz's trinity of war – which says that wars are waged in the space between the leaders' reasoning and planning, the impulses and urges of the masses, and the forces of destruction and violence that have a life of their own – also applies to the political sphere. More abstractly, this set of elements is commonly labeled "emotion-chance-reason." Similar to war, a politician knows how an election campaign begins, but not how it will end.
The boasting we heard last week was typical of the 2013 election campaign, when Likud and Yisrael Beytenu formed what they thought was a right-wing juggernaut. The result was a disappointment. The two parties entered the election with 42 mandates and emerged with only 31. They squandered 11 mandates, effectively sealing the fate of that government from the outset.
An opposite ploy characterized the 2015 election. Although the Zionist Union won an additional 85,000 votes, Likud and Yisrael Beytenu (this time running separately) grew by more than 300,000 votes. It was Netanyahu yet again working his political magic. We remember the grim starting point: The Right entered the election campaign battered and bruised, after control of the coalition had been lost. The election campaign was waged amid an incessant media barrage; a hostile U.S. administration; the controversy surrounding Netanyahu's speech before Congress; the State Comptroller's reports about expenditures at the Prime Minister's Residence and Netanyahu's trips abroad; and the Left's massive mobilization, with organizations such as V15, Commanders for Israel's Security and others.
None of the numbers were in the Likud's favor, and yet the dynamic created by the election fomented considerable unrest on the ground. Ultimately, it led to a high voter turnout, which usually helps the right-wing parties. The euphoria of 2013 was detrimental to the Right while the sense of desperation in 2015 produced a stunning victory.
Election results in a democratic society comprise millions of personal decisions, made far from the spotlight and separate of the pollsters' algorithms. People sit at home and must decide whether to even vote, and then who to vote for – the new general, the promising fighter for social justice, or stick with the old and familiar? It's an infinite computation that no one can predict. The fog of war.
What will the next election campaign look like? If we're to judge by the current situation, it will be a mix of the previous two. On the one hand, there is euphoria on the Right amid the Left's weakness, which could lead to power struggles within the Right and general apathy among voters. On the other hand, we could see extensive mobilization from the Left, the media and technocrats eager to depose a prime minister under investigation and a constant barrage of incrimination and condemnation. What will tip the scales? Which events will rouse the masses, and what will be the unexpected consequences of public statements and television appearances? No one can predict.
The Right should take one bit of advice before the next election campaign: Shed the apathy. The fact that the adversary is battered, divided, ridiculous and weak doesn't mean he cannot win. Under these circumstances, a loss would be far more humiliating and painful.
