It's not hard to imagine what would have happened if an angry Palestinian mob had been successful in lynching two Israeli soldiers who accidentally entered the West Bank city of Jenin on Monday – the resulting atmosphere on both the Israeli and the Palestinian street, and the consequent military action, would have exacted a heavy toll.
For this reason, the Israel Defense Forces must approach the investigation into the incident as if the lynching had actually succeeded. In the Israeli Air Force, this is called a "near miss" incident. To learn the lessons needed to ensure these near misses do not become direct hits in the future, incidents that did not happen must be investigated as if they actually did.
The incident raises many questions that require investigation, and conclusions need to be drawn, both disciplinary and operational.
It is not entirely clear how familiar the soldiers, who took a military vehicle on a wrong turn into Jenin, were with the area and its pitfalls. It is not clear whether they were briefed on the threats before driving through the area, or told which areas to avoid, or which route to take. Every week, quite a few Israelis enter Area A, which is under full Palestinian control. But a soldier who enters the area faces a different reality than a civilian, and entering during times of calm is not the same as entering during periods of high tensions.
The past weeks were particularly temperamental in the area surrounding Jenin. Israel's efforts to apprehend the terror cell responsible for the murder of Rabbi Raziel Shevach last month have increased the friction with the Palestinian population. This friction was reflected in numerous violent clashes. In response, Israel reinforced its security presence in the West Bank last week in an effort to maintain peace, but it was clear that any spark could easily ignite the powder keg. It seems unlikely that the two lost soldiers were told of this volatility.
The two must have passed at least one military checkpoint on their way to Jenin. It is unclear whether or not they were given any instruction, and if not, why. The soldiers manning the checkpoints are not extras in a movie. They are there to inquire and offer warnings when necessary.
It is doubtful that the two were in fact warned, and in any case, they were likely paying little attention to what was happening around them. Had they had just opened their eyes, they would have seen the giant signs warning Israelis against entering Area A.
The soldiers' exclusive reliance on the Waze navigation app, which clearly led them into the wrong place at the wrong time, is understandable but problematic. Waze is not meant to be used as a substitute for common sense. It is incumbent upon the IDF leadership to inform Waze of the problem. The company will likely deflect responsibility, but let us not let them off easy. They have a responsibility to improve their algorithm so that the app will at least warn Israelis that they are about to enter forbidden territory.
The only silver lining in this fiasco is the conduct of the Palestinian police. This should not be taken for granted. In light of the hostile atmosphere between the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships, not to mention the level of anger in the streets, their decision to risk their lives and rescue Israeli soldiers from an angry, violent mob is impressive. It attests not only to the high level of cooperation between the security forces in the area but also to the Palestinian security apparatus' understanding of the danger posed by such an incident getting out of hand.
This security coordination is a valuable asset that represents the last layer of defense in the face of failures and mishaps. It is imperative that Israel preserve it. It is not a substitute for an in-depth investigation of this serious incident, but, as we saw again on Monday, it certainly saves lives.
