Russia has just made a decision that Western countries consider dangerous. The decision was to stop participating in the New START Treaty. The New START treaty is the last agreement with the US that limits how many weapons they can have.
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Moscow and Washington have withdrawn from all other agreements that were important for limiting nuclear and missile weapons. They also left the Open Skies Treaty, which allowed them to fly planes over each other's countries to see what they were doing. But something very important happened.
Russia wants to have more power and pressure against Western countries. Western countries have been more strict and honest with Russia. This is not a biased view, but a realistic one based on what is happening.
Some people think that suspending the treaty will not change much about nuclear weapons. Russia already has a lot of nuclear weapons. The race for more weapons is already going on and does not depend on the treaty.
Russia's arsenal of conventional weapons is running out because of the war in Ukraine. Moscow also needs more military power because it might clash militarily with NATO. Leaving the treaty could make other countries want more nuclear weapons and get ready for fights.
But we must understand that these countries, like China for example, do not need any signal from outside to strengthen their military, with or without nuclear weapons. They have their own strategy for that, plus they have an open front with the US in Taiwan.
So, this so-called suspension does not change much of what other countries are doing, because there are other mechanisms to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons within the framework, not in a two-sided agreement, but a global agreement that still works. It is called the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and nearly 93 countries have signed it, including China, Russia, and the US. And there is also the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Western officials say Russia's decision is a catastrophe. This is striking because the major powers are competing to develop very powerful weapons.
These weapons, not just nuclear, are also a danger and a source of threats to international security and stability.
Moreover, many people believe that nuclear weapons will not be used by anyone. This is because their use would cause great destruction to all parties involved in any current or potential military conflicts and confrontations.
Russia has left the New START treaty that limits nuclear weapons. And this is a watershed moment as it means that there will be less control over the global arms race, whether it involves Russia, the US, or other countries. This is happening at a time when the world is changing. American power is declining and a new global system is emerging. Such shifts increase the likelihood of conflicts between different powers and their allies around the world.
Therefore, removing or ignoring any control over the arms race will have negative effects; it will make everyone want to build up more weapons to prepare for possible conflicts.
All these developments have one big loser. It is global security and stability. The situation is deteriorating at a time when the UN and its institutions are less effective. The world also faces other crises that require cooperation and solidarity. Some of these crises have to do with food shortages, epidemics, and others with economic recession and climate change.
Russia's decision may have another ripple effect. It may make Western leaders want to fight back against Russia. They may impose more sanctions on Moscow. They may also support Ukraine more with arms and money. And they may go on to claim that Russia is a serious threat to Europe's security.
But this may not be true. It can be said that the Kremlin's decision did not shape the West's policy towards Russia. But it may give them a good cover for their policies in terms of media and PR agenda.
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