In recent days, the Russian threat to Ukraine has become more tangible after talks between the US and NATO allies failed, while the Russian military increases its presence on the eastern border.
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A large-scale hack that paralyzed Ukrainian government websites contributed to a sense in Kiev that it wasn't a question of whether the Russians would invade, but when. The Russian army announced this weekend that its eastern command was preparing to move forces to the west, a hint that Russian forces near the Ukrainian border would be receiving reinforcements ahead of a military action.
Washington has also warned about the Russian activity and State Department spokesman Ned Price claimed that the administration had information that Russia was planning provocations in the border region, with the goal of justifying a wide-scale military action. Price said that Russian forces were already in the area and preparing to carry out actions that would give the Kremlin an excuse to move.
But other than the failed talks and the winter weather conditions that would benefit a Russian military action, there is another reason why Moscow might approve an attack in the next few months, one that has less to do with international negotiations with the West and more to do with conditions on the ground.
The veteran American military publication Coffee or Die reported last week that in April, Ukraine expected to activate its first Neptune cruise missile division. This is an advanced weapon that Ukraine produces itself, the jewel in the crown of Ukraine's military missile array. The Neptune cruise missile is an ultrasound model that has a range of several hundred kilometers. The Ukrainians are planning to deploy dozens of Neptune missile batteries throughout the country, and hope to have three divisions responsible for launching these missiles by 2025.
According to experts, this means that Ukraine will increase its deterrent power significantly. The cruise missiles are capable of hitting Russian ships in the Black Sea, air force bases in western Russia, and staging grounds for Russian military ahead of any operation in the Ukraine. If an entire division of Neptune missile launchers is deployed, it could completely change Russia's operational plan and require the Russian air force to take out the launchers one at a time, which would expose its aircraft to Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles and eat away at entire days of the invasion plan.
The Ukrainians understand this and have already started redeploying their anti-aircraft defenses and adapting them for a drawn-out aerial campaign that will cost the Russians precious time and lives. In the spring, when the cruise missiles join the Ukrainian arsenal, Ukraine could make the Russian invaders pay a much heavier price.
A year ago, when Ukraine was testing the missiles, the country's defense ministry called them a "promising direction for Ukrainian security." The Ukrainian defense ministry said they could serve as a deterrent element against an invasion because they could hit not only ships, but also bases on land.
But let there be no mistake – when it comes to the military balance of power, it's doubtful that the Ukrainian army, in its current form, can stop or hold up a Russian military invasion. But the more Ukraine integrates advanced weapons systems of its own production, or receives them from the US or European countries, the potential cost the Kremlin will have to pay shoots up. Moscow is aware of this, making a Russian military action this winter a real possibility.
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