The 1996 election is seared in collective Israeli political memory. It was a highly-charged election that took place a mere six months after the Rabin assassination. What everyone remembers is that we went to sleep with Shimon Peres in the lead and woke up with Benjamin Netanyahu, who won by just one percent of the vote, less than 30,000 votes. What we also remember is the illusion of the polls, which three months prior indicated a landslide victory for Peres. They were wrong, the media was wrong, and Netanyahu was the elected prime minister.
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Amid the profusion of elections in recent years, we've developed a love-hate relationship with polls. We enjoy snickering at them, get angry over them or fear them, gloat when they are erroneous, and still -- we can't live without them. And thus, every few days, the news studios run another "interesting mandate poll." From the perspective of the average right-winger, the polls from the past several weeks reflect an almost imaginary reality. If we subtract the "yes-Bibi-no-Bibi" handicap from the equation for a moment and hope that after the election these camps find a way to sit in a coalition together, then there's a chance for a stable and serious right-wing government. Or, maybe, not.
Here is a not unreasonable scenario. In one week the parties will have to submit their Knesset tickets. Although the neighbor's grass still isn't greener, and the Left is shattered into small parties, we can assume they will unite or withdraw from the race, even at the last possible moment.
And ours? It's in a state of euphoria. Naftali Bennett is polling at 12-14 mandates, Gideon Sa'ar is polling at 14-16, and the Likud is polling at 27-29. Bezalel Smotrich and his cohort are barely passing the electoral threshold, if at all. These are the numbers, and they are practically unreal.
Among my circle of acquaintances, close or otherwise, I mostly feel a sense of embarrassment. The public is tired, troubled; people are fighting to make a living and their sanity and the sanity of their children. The public is furious at its elected officials and their detached conduct, and really doesn't understand the difference between the parties and why so many are needed. The voters, this time, are exceedingly brittle, with the Likud splintering on one side and on the other side the Religious Zionist Party-Yamina split everything truly does look the same. The base is no longer a true base and it's doubtful the masses will bother dragging themselves to the voting stations at the height of a pandemic.
In the last election, the Right lost roughly eight mandates as Bennet and Moshe Feiglin failed to pass the threshold. At that time, even with the raging egos and constant squabbling, we limped to the finish line with another election win. The party leaders need to wake up every day as if it were April 10, 2019, just before these mandates were squandered. This is the reality of the situation, not the polls.
Listen up, friends. Immense challenges await the state of Israel. Beyond the coronavirus, an economy in desperate need of resuscitation and rehabilitation, it would behoove us to heed the renewed rumblings from the international community. The new administration of our great friend across the pond is hastening a new nuclear deal with Iran, has already declared a return to the two-state track, and is generally interested in reverting to the old Middle East of Barack Obama. Earlier this week, IDF chief Aviv Kochavi this week echoed Netanyahu's strong policies pertaining to Iran. He, too, hears the voices emanating from the new administration and understands.
This is the reality of the situation, not polls. Do you understand, too? Put an end to your games of ego and inane rhetoric, come together and fight for our votes. If you don't, we could see a repeat of 1996, just in reverse.
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