The decision to hold this election was disgraceful and should have been avoided. Indeed, citizens who are so fed up with our dysfunctional politics that they don't bother voting could be critical for the outcome.
Yet ironically, the outcome could be the formation of a stable government that reflects the national consensus.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
Although recent opinion polls have proved to be misleading, Likud and its right-wing and haredi allies may again fail to win sufficient seats to form a right-wing government. As nothing Likud could offer would satisfy Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, whose primary goal is politically destroying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a repeated deadlock seems inevitable. And holding a third election is not an option.
Apart from supporters of the Joint Arab List and the haredim, most Israelis will vote holding their noses.
Likud supporters will be voting for a government that would include the eccentric Moshe Feiglin and the legalization of marijuana.
Yamina, formerly the New Right, is headed by able and charismatic Ayelet Shaked but will have as one of its leading personalities the coarse, loud-mouthed Bezalel Smotrich, whose views radically contrast with those of religious Zionism's founders, moderates like Haim-Moshe Shapira and Yosef Burg.
Those traditionally supporting Labor Zionism are forced to choose between Amir Peretz's Labor-Gesher party and the Democratic Union, a merger of Meretz with former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's Israel Democratic Party.
Blue and White supporters have two issues to contend with. Many shudder at the prospect of Yair Lapid becoming prime minister after a rotation of two years with Benny Gantz – unless, as is likely, the partnership is terminated after the elections.
The other concern is the performance of Gantz himself, who lacks charisma, contradicts himself, and seems to be a monotonously "nice guy" but hardly the leader Israel requires. This is highlighted with comparisons to Netanyahu who – despite a viciously hostile press, major diplomatic and military challenges, legal pressures, and an impending election – remains as cool as a cucumber.
Aside from the extent to which the Supreme Court's powers may be limited, there are no major political differences between Likud and Blue and White.
Ignoring their right and left extremes, both major parties agree on:
- Security objectives
- The current inadvisability of a Palestinian state, which Iran could employ as a launching pad against us
- Carefully weighing the possibility of applying Israeli law to settlements and, if the US does not resist, annexing and applying sovereignty to Area C. This will come to a turning point after the elections when the Trump peace plan is finally revealed
- Opposition to dividing Jerusalem or ceding further territories unless a final settlement is reached
- Making great efforts, in the context of the status quo, to improve the living conditions of Palestinians in the hope that they will ultimately have leaders willing to peacefully coexist.
Actually, only two issues are motivating voters:
The principal issue is "Bibi fatigue." Those who have it argue that after 13 years, Netanyahu has outlived his political life and should go. Ten years in office is usually regarded as optimal for a democratic leader.
The secondary factor is the chance for a government in which the haredim are denied the ability to impose ever-more stringent interpretations of Halachah. Lieberman's anti-haredi incitement has touched a chord and substantially increased his party's popularity.
But what will happen after the elections when no juggling of political musical chairs enables a government to be formed?
It is possible that, despite all the obstacles, Netanyahu may still achieve a majority. He may yet again pull off a last-minute electoral gimmick. Aside from this, many who despise him still prefer an experienced hand rather than a novice at the wheel. Even those who detest Netanyahu's personal weaknesses respect him as a world-class leader enjoying excellent relations with the leaders of the US, Russia, and other countries, including Arab former adversaries now inching closer to open relations with Israel.
If Netanyahu is unable to form a right-wing government, he may make a generous offer to Gantz, possibly resulting in a split with Lapid.
A national unity government would then be achieved, which would satisfy most Israelis. The haredim could remain within the government but they would not be in a position to veto government initiatives.
Even if politically victorious, Netanyahu will still face legal charges, but the court may face a tough and lengthy battle to convict him.
Alternatively, should Likud not top the polls, there will be pressure for Netanyahu to step down and for a national unity government, with or without the haredim, to be formed, headed in rotation by Gantz and a new Likud leader.
Although this election is somewhat like a lottery, voters should support the party whose leader they feel is best equipped to head our nation over the crucial year facing us. Our choice could have existential repercussions.
