There are those who would describe what happened in the Knesset as a watershed moment, and a preview of things to come. If the government does not dissolve soon, the coalition will not be the same.
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The necessary move led by Ra'am party leader Mansour Abbas, which saw an Arab party join an Israeli government for the first time in history, came at the wrong time and with a problematic Knesset composition.
Both the Jewish majority and the Arab minority are ripe for cooperation in the opposition but not the coalition, at least according to opinion polls that indicate a majority of Israelis are uncomfortable with the current framework.
One year after Ra'am parted ways with the Joint Arab List to embark on a new path in Arab Israeli politics, anyone with eyes in their head can see the Islamist party has failed, primarily as a result of a lack of understanding or acceptance from its fellow coalition members. By contrast, the Joint Arab List will be able to cinch a major achievement if it lends a hand to toppling the government. If, however, the Likud under Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu returns to power and Religious Zionism Party head Bezalel Smortrich and Otzma Yehudit MK Itamar Ben-Gvir are appointed senior ministers, the Joint Arab List could pay a heavy price.
With Ra'am's failed attempt to join the coalition on one hand and the Joint Arab List's decision to remain on the opposition bench on the other, the Arab public could lose faith in its representation in the Knesset, and voting rates could consequently sink.
Ra'am MK Mazen Ghanaim voted against the government and took down a law introduced by senior coalition partner Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar. This act was symbolic of his deep sense of disappointment with the coalition but also marked the launch of his campaign for the Sakhnin Municipality. It also symbolizes the current state of the Ra'am party and the changes taking place within it. The more time goes by, the more its senior officials speak out against the move led by Abbas. While this would normally be deemed a rebellion, things work differently in the Islamist movement. It is already clear that Abbas will conclude his parliamentary and possibly public career.
Ghanaim has told his close associates that while he does not want to stay in the Knesset, he cannot withstand the pressure from Abbas. The Ra'am leader does not want Ghanaim to quit at this stage out of concern the man who would replace him in the Knesset will publicly oppose Abbas and his moves in the coalition.
Now that the coalition is on its last legs, Abbas will try to buy time to remain in the government in the hope the funds promised to him in the coalition agreement will reach their destination. Moreover, the day will come when Foreign Minister Yair Lapid will take on the role of prime minister, and from Abbas' perspective, things will look a little different both in terms of the personal treatment he receives from the Prime Minister's Office and in terms of his achievements.
At any rate, should the coalition survive thanks to the Arab Ra'am party or fall thanks to the Joint Arab List, this will have repercussions for the Arab Israeli public. We can already see the results in the incitement and defamation emanating from both camps.
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