Russian President Vladimir Putin is an avid judo fan, who is known for his ability to tackle the best of them, but had he chosen the master the art of chess, he would probably know that in terms of strategy, often the threat itself is more effective than putting it into action.
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As long as Putin was threatening to invade Ukraine, he seemed invincible. The mode shifted only when he ordered his forces to actually attack. The Russian premise was that Ukraine would fall with little to no resistance. This is in line with the traditional Soviet intimidation tactics the Kremlin has always maintained vis-à-vis Russia's neighbors, by which a military invasion was only a prelude to installing a puppet government in the occupied territory, the mission of which it was to complete the operation using oppression.
There is no doubt that the Kremlin propagandists have prepared a similar plan this time as well. In their view, the attack on Ukraine was supposed to undermine morale, and immediately neutralize the Ukrainian regime, which the architects of the invasion planned to quickly replace with an "emergency government" headed by local Russian loyalists.
There is no doubt that the names of the members of this "government" were already in place. Maybe even some fake news videos of masses of d cheering Ukrainians offering flowers to the liberating Russian army.
Contrary to Moscow's hopes, however, Kyiv did not relent. The Ukrainian army is putting up a valiant fight on all fronts, exacting heavy casualties from the Russians. Ukrainian civilians are demonstrating resistance and resilience, and they are confident that they will defeat the Russians.
Moreover, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not fled – he is leading the fight admirably. By doing so, Zelenskyy has finally and completely shed the image of comedian-turned-accidental-president. He is sure to face criticism after the war is over, but right now even his rivals rallying behind him, lauding him for how he is handling the crisis.
Zelenskyy's determination is underscored further against the backdrop of the West's feeble response so far. He has refused offers of extraction and asylum, he has not buckled under pressure, and he faces his people with resolution and authority.
The fighting in Ukraine is far from over but it is clearly not unfolding the way Russia had hoped. Kyiv has not fallen and shows no signs that it would give up without a fight. The Ukraine army is preventing Russian forces that have made it to the capital from inflicting any massive damage.
Ukraine's main lines of defense have not been breached and even if the Russians manage to take a few large cities, it would take more than that to bring a freedom-loving nation of 40 million to its knees.
Deprived of significant military achievements thus far, Russia is censoring the media's use of the word "war" and barring reports of the real number of casualties, and cracking down on anti-war protests. The Kremlin, it seems, finds it hard to break with the Soviet tradition by which if reality isn't pretty it must be concealed until all is well again. Except that this time, that's not going to happen.
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