The war in Ukraine profoundly changed the European energy architecture. European sanctions as well as Russia's response effectively ruined an energy partnership that started in the early 1970s and survived the Cold War. President Vladimir Putin believed in Europe's irreducible dependence on Russia – but he appeared to be wrong. The Russian gas exports to Europe declined to the pre-2000 level, and by 2024 EU may get no longer use Russian supplies. The EU oil embargo that came into force just a month ago, will send oil shipments tumbling in 2023. This shift isn't cheap: some sources estimate the cost of EU energy independence from Russia at 500 billion euros, but Russia's exit from the European market seems final.
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But as Europe is becoming more dependent on gas supplies from Norway, Libya, Qatar and the United States, a new regional actor that has flown under the radar for decades is rising – Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks a special status for his country and wants to consolidate supply routes that can link Europe with gas suppliers, both old and new.
On the one hand, Erdogan plays a love-and-hate game with Moscow being an ally of both Russia and Ukraine: He orchestrates grain deals and becomes Russia's largest channel for unauthorized supply of Western-produced goods, and in return, he might get a prize in the form of a giant natural gas hub in Thrace, Turkeys European part, from where the Russian gas, pumped via already existing Blue and Turkish streams as well as through a new planned pipe might be channeled to Southern Europe and also to Austria and Germany.
During Gazprom CEO Alexei Millers' recent visit to Turkey, the capacity of the pipe was estimated at 60bcm per year so Turkey's transit potential may increase to around 115bcm per year. As Turkey looks forward to becoming one of the largest buyers of Russian oil that may be processed for reselling petroleum products to Europe, which is not restricted by sanctions, Erdogan might become the main dealer of Russian energy resources as early as in 2024 (if, of course, he succeeds in his re-election bid). This means that not only Mr. Putin is losing his bold energy game in Europe, but Mr. Erdogan is winning it – and may therefore increase Turkey's geopolitical influence.
On the other hand, the Turks are mastering a great game in Central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean. First, Ankara seems to stay behind the rapid failure of the Putin-proposed trilateral gas alliance between Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Turkey, in close partnership with Azerbaijan and Georgia, may increase the capacity of Trans-Caucasian routes as Russia blackmails Kazakh oil producers by arbitrary closures of the vital Trans-Caspian pipe allowing Kazakh companies to deliver their produce to Novorossiysk. Second, the Turkish authorities bet on prospective oil and natural gas deposits off its southern coast (just recently a new oil deposit was unveiled here) and off the Northern coast of Cyprus where Ankara seeks to start drills in 2019. If Nikos Christodoulides, a Kremlin favorite, currently leading the polls, becomes president of Cyprus in February, the hardline parties that support him may be not inclined to reach compromises with Turkey, so his victory would diminish the possibility of a new international effort to develop Cyprus gas fields. Thus, Ankara might move unilaterally toward exploring them off the coast of Northern Cyprus, also putting into action its plan for a two-state solution or even the annexation of the occupied area of the island. Third, one should mention Turkey is now re-establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel after Erdogan and then-Prime Minister Yair Lapid met in New York in September and looks forward to offering cooperation bids to both Israel and Lebanon in delivering natural gas from large deposits off the Eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea to Europe.
Of course, Turkey's aspirations may not be realized – but it looks like Ankara is betting on becoming a major gas supplier to Europe. If this happens the EU may once again become supplied mainly by pipeline gas from a nearby country while the American and Middle Eastern producers reorient towards Asian and Pacific Rim nations.
To conclude, I would argue that while Russia looks like a declining power, humiliated by its failures in Ukraine, Turkey emerges as a leader of the Islamic world as well as a major power in the Middle East – and a strong and rising autocrat might become a more problematic counterpart than a weakened and aging one.
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