On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin crossed the Rubicon. By invading Ukraine and shelling its airports and military ammunition depots – even in the western regions – he removed himself from international security arrangements for good.
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By trampling on international law, he has turned Russia into an unprecedented and immediate danger not only to Ukraine but all of the West. And although Putin has attacked Ukraine in particular, he seeks to make an example of Kyiv and pull the rug out from under every nation.
What the Russian president seeks is no secret: he has demanded that Kyiv recognize Crimea as part of Russia, hand over the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, agree to demilitarization, and above all: pledge to never join NATO, a move Putin sees would threaten Russian.
The former was also Putin's main demand during negotiations with Western powers. He asked them to pledge that Ukraine will never become a NATO member, although there were no signs of such a move was in the making.
In any case, Putin demanded the US and NATO to confirm by December-January, and contrary to expectations hit a wall. Washington and Brussels have repeatedly said "no," which is when Putin decided "now or never" and ordered an incursion of Ukraine.
What exactly Putin wants to achieve next is hard to say. At the very least, to fully occupy Donetsk and Luhansk and hand the territories over to the newly-recognized allies and a few other "endearing" regimes, such as Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba.
If this prediction is correct, bombing Khakrov in the east, Kyiv and Dnipro in the center, and even Ivano-Frankivsk in the west is an attempt to weaken the Ukrainian military by destroying its ammunition.
Alternatively, Russia may be betting on breeding panic across Ukraine, possibly dragging it into a revolution in favor of a pro-Russian takeover from within.
Thursday's events proved to the West that Putin neither respects sovereign entities nor cares about political negotiations. He is a bully that possesses nuclear capabilities, with all left to offer in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election is a "geopolitical achievement."
As Putin approaches 70, he chose to sacrifice Russia's present on the altar of the empire he wants to revive. Thursday saw the beginning of a new era in international relations.
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