At first glance, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's decision to make Israel his first foreign destination since the outbreak of the coronavirus, and on the eve of the next government's inauguration no less, raises more than a few questions. Is the battery of items on the American-Israeli docket so urgent that addressing them requires Pompeo's flash visit, even before the final bow on the coalition is tied?
The answer to these questions can be found in three contexts, which Pompeo himself slightly alluded to on the eve of his visit and throughout. From a visual perspective, it appears the secretary of state carried with him to Jerusalem a three-part message akin to a traffic light, whose colors alternate based on the specific matter at hand. The first message, green, signals full support and encouragement for Israeli military activity against Iranian forces and weapons systems in Syria. The goal: Exploit Tehran's growing weakness and expedite its withdrawal from Syria.
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The second message, yellow, pertains to the timing of Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to launch legislative initiatives to apply Israeli sovereignty in the Jordan Valley and north Dead Sea region. In this context, Pompeo stressed that Israel was within its right to employ its own judgment on the matter, and therefore the message doesn't include an explicit American demand to postpone the move.
With that, it is a yellow light, as the administration would rather Israel coordinate this step to the fullest with Washington, and that it be implemented only after the joint American-Israeli mapping committee completes its work. This position, which favors controlled and measured progress on the path to sovereignty, reflects the concerns harbored by the administration, mainly within the intelligence community, over the regional ramifications of applying sovereignty within a two-month timeframe, along with the desire to tie all the plan's remaining loose ends together.
From the perspective of the White House, postponing annexation from early summer to the end of autumn 2020 comes with another considerable advantage. Israeli implementation with declared presidential support, on the eve of the US election on November 3, could be optimal from Trump's point of view in terms of spurring his evangelical base to go out and vote. The vast majority of this constituency unreservedly supports this aspect of Trump's deal of the century, as does a segment of American Jewry.
In light of his contentious battle with Democratic rival Joe Biden, Trump would prefer to hold this card in his pocket for the time being and avoid a situation where the desired effect of Israeli annexation has already waned by the time Americans head to the voting stations.
Finally, the red light. Although Israel's relationship with the US administration is tight-knit and light-years from former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's strained relations with former President Bill Clinton during the twilight of his second term, which forced him to torpedo Israel's Phalcon deal with China, this time around Pompeo drew an unambiguous bright red line in regards to China. New geo-strategic circumstances have emerged in the international sphere, necessitating stringent adherence to red lines as they pertain to future deals that could give the Chinese giant control of strategic and technological assets.
We are witnessing the dawn of a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. Israel's announcement Wednesday that it will reconsider China's role in a desalination project in the south indeed indicates Netanyahu's desire to mitigate any potential friction with the US on this highly-charged front.
