Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman is in a panic. His attempt to force a national unity government has failed and with no new coalition in sight, Israel is facing the growing prospect of holding an unprecedented third general election in one year.
This has him so frazzled that he has actually admitted – on live TV – that if push comes to shove, he may vote in favor of a minority government backed by the Joint Arab List.
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Yes, Lieberman is so desperate, he is willing to team with the very people he has repeatedly called "enemies of the state." This has never been done before. The prospect of a minority government with Arab parties is potentially an event of a historic scale, something that will never be forgotten or forgiven. And all in the name of a foolish political gambit for which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused to fall.
Netanyahu's decision to name New Right co-founder Naftali Bennett as the defense minister has shaken the lethargic Israeli politics. The move followed Blue and White leader Benny Gantz's announcement that at this point in the coalition talks there is zero-chance of cobbling together a national unity government, and his subsequent statement that he plans to "explore other avenues" to form a coalition.
In practice, the only option at Gantz's disposal is a government supported by the Arab factions - not as silent partners who will abstain in parliament votes, but as active ones. In this scenario, all Lieberman has to do is abstain during a vote or simply skip it for Gantz to secure the support of 57 MKs to Netanyahu's 55-MK bloc.
The fact that a Gantz government of this nature won't live out its days aside, the main problem Blue and White's leader will have to overcome is getting Lieberman to actually agree to this.
If he does, Lieberman will have completed his conversion from a right-wing hardliner to an integral part of the Left.
Gantz was ostensibly counting on Bennett to avoid this issue: Had Bennett and the New Right joined his government Blue and White would have no need look to the Joint Arab List for help, thus allowing Lieberman to support said government even from the benches of the opposition.
But Netanyahu was faster in securing Bennett's support. Naming New Right's co-founder as the defense minister is no more absurd as when Netanyahu named Lieberman to this post in 2016, and there is no question that while Netanyahu relations with both Bennett and Lieberman are tense, he gets along with Bennett more that he does with Lieberman.
The frosty ties between Netanyahu and Bennett have also been somewhat thawing lately, so this appointment is not that far-fetched.
If Bennett is made to vacate his seat in two weeks because Gantz has been able to form a government, then the former's image will be none the worse for wear, even if the media does ridicule him for having the shortest career as defense minister in Israel's history.
On the other hand, if Bennett is the sitting defense minister during an election campaign, it will undoubtedly prove an electoral boon for the New Right.
But more than Netanyahu succeeded in making Gantz anxious, it seems that Lieberman is the one who has really been put on edge. His hatred for Netanyahu should seemingly mandate he joins a Gantz-led government, but the cost of cooperating with Arab MKs will change Yisrael Beytenu forever, and not for the better.
Bennett's appointment, as far as Netanyahu is concerned, is baiting Lieberman: while Yisrael Beytenu's chairman failed to oust Netanyahu, he may be able to push Bennett out of the Defense Ministry. That may prove to be of small comfort of Lieberman, but alas, that may be all he is able to achieve.
