In light of the expectations that the IDF and Shin Bet security agency's successes in Gaza have created, it's important to clarify something: Operation Breaking Dawn was never intended to lead to any fundamental change in the situation in the Gaza Strip, and doesn't have the potential to do so. Any fundamental change must involve Hamas, something that at the moment is not only not a goal of the operation but also something that the security establishment is making a special effort to avoid.
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The operation that Israel initiated, with little other choice, sought to remove an immediate threat to the residents of southern Israel, while also strengthening Israeli deterrence and separating the connection that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad was trying to create between IDF actions in Judea and Samaria and its policy on terrorist attacks from Gaza. Expectations of the operation, as well as the criteria of its success, should be calibrated according to that definition.
Preparations for a funeral
As these lines were being written, Rafah residents were preparing for the funeral of Khaled Mansour – one of the most senior commanders of the PIJ in Gaza, who was responsible for hundreds of terrorist attacks against Israel and for building up some of the organization's strategic military systems.
Mansour's death, which came two days after his partner Tayseer al-Jabari was killed, leaves the PIJ without two of its most skilled field commanders. Their experience was vital to the group, especially now, during the current conflict.
The targeted killings of Jabari and Mansour will be high on the list of the PIJ's losses in this round, but they are only part of the price the group is paying for provoking Israel.
Alongside the (painful but acceptable) blow to its people and military capabilities, it will need to cope with embarrassment and a loss in its standing, as well as its leader's self-confidence. Hamas, we can assume, won't make things any easier.
An embarrassing mistake
The PIJ will need to account to its operatives for its embarrassing error in assessing what Israel's response would be, and failing to anticipate Israel's surprise attack. It will need to stand by the images of Gaza residents who were killed and wounded by its own cells' misfires.
It cannot evade the stinging sense of offense that in this battle, it was once again on its own – without Hamas, without Hezbollah, and without succeeding in sending incitement-enraged mobs out into Israel's streets.
PIJ operatives in Samaria, whom the IDF and Shin Bet have been busily arresting after the group's ultimatum, won't thank it.
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From its point of view, it has lost a lot of points. We can assume that it will be difficult for the PIJ to end the fighting in this situation, and that it will continue trying to drag Hamas into it, cause major damage to the Israeli side, and improve its record.
Hamas stood by
As for Hamas, while we can assume that the PIJ will accuse it of standing by and not rushing to defend its people, even against "Israel's brutal aggression," the mistakes the PIJ made and the economic boons Hamas will request for Gaza residents via the Egyptian mediations will help it justify its choice. We can only hope that Egypt and Qatar's mediation efforts will not lead to an absurd situation in which Hamas winds up benefitting from this round of violence.
Internationally, it appears as if the Ukraine war and the tension between China, the US, and Taiwan have overshadowed the events in Gaza. The Arab world wasn't overly focused on it, either, and we can assume that the Abraham Accords contributed to that.
The situation at this time backs up optimistic assessments about the goals of the operation having been met. The key words here are "at this time," given the inherent and ongoing risks of the fighting and the many scenarios that could change the current equation. Security forces face a major challenge in holding onto the success and preventing things from turning around.
Israelis are tired of wars
One last observation, which had special significance on Tisha B'Av, has to do with the conduct of the society in Israel. It's no secret that our enemies, all of them, continue to cling to the idea that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made in his spider web speech in May 2000 – they see Israeli society as divided, pampered, tired of wars, and lacking the necessary resilience to withstand difficult battles. This gives them encouragement and hope.
The public's behavior, the people's spirit, and a united stance during Operation Breaking Dawn are the answer.
