The real battle is just beginning. A significant portion of the declarations made before Tuesday won't stop those who made them from claiming their new circumstance obligates them to change course. Those who vowed not to sit with one person or another, those who promised to join a coalition only if they receive a specific portfolio, and even those who swore they wouldn't join any coalition that ignores some of the issues they hold dear, could recalibrate their positions.
Two critical issues, at least, are now on the agenda: One is diplomatic and the other is legal. The former relates to the Trump administration's so-called "deal of the century," while the latter refers to the transfer of evidence collected against Netanyahu to his attorneys. If the American peace plan is unveiled before the next government is established, it could justify a move toward a national unity government so that the proposal isn't rejected.
If Netanyahu emerges from this election without the need for Gantz, he will likely enter negotiations with the parties that have already promised to recommend him to the president. However, he could easily tell them their demands are too high and try forming a government with Gantz based on the terms stipulated by Gantz himself in the recording leaked to the press. According to their supposed agreement, if the attorney general opts to indict Netanyahu after his hearing, Netanyahu will recuse himself of the premiership (similar to Yitzhak Rabin many years ago), and the next person in line (presumably Gantz) will replace him until all legal proceedings are concluded.
If Gantz emerges without the need for Netanyahu, he still won't be able to form a coalition without the Likud, and even in such a scenario, he will have to accept Netanyahu in his government, in a senior position, until the attorney general makes his decision. Then – according to the aforementioned agreement – Netanyahu would have to step down if he's indicted.
If the Trump plan somehow isn't just a photocopy of the Likud's (nonexistent) platform, the center-left bloc will clearly look to exploit the opportunity to enter talks with the Palestinian Authority, because a right-wing government with far-right and delusional-right elements can only reject such a plan, even if Netanyahu makes an effort to prevent this from happening. In this scenario, Netanyahu would have to ask Trump to postpone presenting the plan, and it's possible he could then learn his powers of persuasion have their limits. Gantz's interest, therefore, along with Netanyahu, is to form a unity government.
As for the small parties that have vowed to support Netanyahu, it's doubtful they will all keep their promise. Once more details emerge from the police investigations, not to mention the possibility of additional investigations into Netanyahu's stocks in his cousin's steel company, they could change course. The discussions prior to meeting with the president will be the stage in which all masks are removed, and only the coalitional negotiations will prove whether these elections have produced a national unity government.
