With one week remaining to the repeat election, all eyes are on the struggle between the two largest parties, whose electoral strategies are bound to their aspirations for a coalition government.
The Blue and White party's ultimate goal is to prevent the right-wing bloc from attaining a majority. Another central goal is to earn more Knesset seats than the Likud. If these two goals are achieved, the president will be more likely to task Blue and White chief Benny Gantz with forming the new government, regardless of whether or not more parties recommend Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the job.
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All the talk of a government "with Likud but without Netanyahu" is aimed at gaining legitimacy among right-wing voters who have yet to decide just who they will vote for on Sept. 17. The chances of creating an obstructive bloc would increase were Blue and White to attack Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Lieberman over his (supposedly) belonging to the Right. This would cause more voters to defect to Yisrael Beytenu from the Right. However, such a move was prevented when Lieberman changed direction. He is now seen as a central partner to a Blue and White-led government.
Meanwhile, over at the Likud, the opposite targets have been marked. The Likud, of course, wants the right-wing bloc to garner a majority of Knesset seats and is interested in coming in first in the race with Blue and White. They are emphasizing Yisrael Beytenu's "leftism" in an effort to prevent the loss of anti-haredi right-wing votes. The Likud is acting to prevent votes being wasted on parties that are unlikely to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold. At the same time, it is very likely that the attempts to garner a large number of Knesset seats at the expense of both the Yamina and Shas parties will not harm those parties' chances of passing the electoral threshold.
But if the right-wing blocks earn fewer than 60 Knesset seats, and if Blue and White becomes the largest party, Gantz and his fellow party members will have no chance of forming a government without the help of elements from the right-wing camp. This is due to the vast differences between the parties that belong to the "anti-Netanyahu" camp. It is difficult to imagine a partnership between Yisrael Beytenu and the Joint Arab List, for example. Should Blue and White achieve both its goals, it will aspire to either trigger defections from the Right or set in motion processes that will force Netanyahu to resign from the role of premier in opposition to the will of his voters.
The Likud does not have a similar problem. If the right-wing bloc garners a majority, coalition negotiations will not be easy, but a right-wing government will be formed. There may also be other options, among them those that involve the defection of elements from the opposing bloc.
Although hostile to Netanyahu, Lieberman has shown a willingness to switch sides in the past. We may also see party members defect from Blue and White. A decisive factor on this front would be feelings of animosity among certain individuals, and not just over a political stance. Even the Labor-Gesher alliance, whose electoral standing is on shaky ground, could wind up joining forces with Netanyahu. The Likud has entered into partnerships with Labor but also the now-defunct Independence party in the past. Then again, there is always the possibility that the two biggest parties will lead the government together.
