There is ample evidence indicating the decline of American influence on a global scale, and the situation unfolding in the Republic of Niger serves as the latest illustration of this trend. Despite the firm American stance against the military coup, the ruling military council in Niger has announced its intention to put the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum on trial, charging him with high treason due to his connections with foreign heads of state and international organizations. This move is seen as an attempt by Bazoum to regain power against the will of the Nigerien people, and if the trial proceeds, it could result in his execution.
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The US' position regarding the events in Niger has garnered disapproval from France. Le Figaro reported that the visit of Victoria Nuland, the acting deputy secretary of state, to Niger immediately after the coup greatly displeased Paris. It highlighted the conflicting perspectives between the two countries and presented an opportunity for the coup leaders to buy time and navigate between the French stance, which supports the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in executing a military operation in Niger to reinstate Bazoum, and the US' approach, which engaged in negotiations with the military council to resolve the crisis, accompanied by hints of potential force.
However, it did not even insist on the reinstatement of the former president to his position. This conveys a message of significant importance to the US' allies who are closely observing its stance, as it seemed to abandon a newfound ally in Africa after failing to assert its influence and role.
France's discontent with the American position in Niger is not solely tied to this particular country but is rooted in Africa's broader position within French foreign policy. Paris heavily relies on its influence and relationships in Africa as a key strategic tool for its international role.
In recent years, as American influence waned in various regions around the world, coinciding with Africa's emergence as a promising geostrategic arena amidst China's and Russia's rapid expansion on the continent, Washington has been actively working to bolster its presence in Africa. This effort has often occurred without coordination with France and, on occasion, has encroached upon France's historical influence in the same countries.
The American approach to events in Niger serves as a compelling example of the factors contributing to the global decline of American power and influence. The Biden administration displays hesitancy even when remotely considering the use of military force to achieve its foreign policy goals. Instead of employing a "carrot and stick" diplomacy, it consistently seeks diplomatic solutions.
This approach is reasonable. However, what is concerning is the prevailing belief that the White House under President Biden's leadership will abstain from engaging in military conflicts or endorsing military interventions. The hints at the use of force to safeguard not only the interests of the US but also those of its strategic allies are merely rhetoric lacking genuine intentions, as has been the case in the discourse of previous US presidents.
Another issue at hand is the competition between the US and France in Africa, which has overshadowed what should be a more substantial competition between the US and its other strategic adversaries, such as Russia and China. Washington operates in the same countries and regions that hold importance in French diplomacy, turning the American role into a challenger to French influence and authority. This competition does not contribute any added value to the Western camp within the context of the geostrategic struggle in the post-Ukraine landscape.
It is evident that the increasing African skepticism toward the West will have adverse consequences for both France and the US, particularly in the absence of the expected coordination in their dealings with African nations. This situation plays into the hands of Russia and China, as reports suggest they are poised to gain control over approximately 7% of global uranium production in Africa. For the record, Namibia ranks third globally in uranium production with 5,600 tons in 2022, while Niger stands at seventh globally with an annual output of around 2,000 tons, constituting roughly 5% of global production in the same year.
The most concerning aspect is the potential impediments to counter-extremism and counter-terrorism efforts in numerous African countries, which have become a declared battleground for organizations like ISIS and Al Qaeda.
The geopolitical shifts occurring in the Sahel region serve as a clear indicator of the power struggle among major global players. Niger and neighboring countries in that region are poised to become a new battlefield between the West and Russia. Russia's expanding presence in a region historically distant from its strategic influence marks a setback for France, rapidly diminishing in terms of its role and impact in Africa. This, in turn, has repercussions for other pressing European concerns, most notably illegal migration, where Niger plays a pivotal role in control efforts.
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The shortcomings in American and French foreign policies within the West African region, including Niger, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania, which France traditionally regarded as its sphere of influence, can be attributed to various factors. Among these, the dominance of economic considerations over political ones stands out, resulting in concurrent losses for both countries.
China and Russia have firmly established their presence in Mali and Niger, driven by their interests in security, oil, and uranium. Moreover, Western nations have seen their ability to combat terrorism weakened. This is despite Washington's efforts, starting with the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership launched in 2003, which initially received meager funding, not exceeding 6 million dollars. This initiative later evolved into the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Initiative, which received substantially more funding, up to 400 million dollars.
Additionally, there is a growing African trend that exhibits increasing hostility toward Western relations, motivated by the goal of ending foreign dominance and harnessing the continent's resources for the benefit of its people. This is a development that both Paris and Washington should have taken into account many years ago.
