Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statement this week that if we do not return 40 abductees now – we will not return anyone, is hard to fathom.
But it conveys a message that this option is possible and not far off. It may be that the idea of an interim deal is what is guiding him in his considerations of whom to include in the War Cabinet and whom not to include.
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Hamas' considerations for agreeing to such a deal are also to gain points with supporters of the murder organization in the European Union and the United States. On the other hand, the release of half of the abductees will create severe strains both in the government and among the public.
It is clear that the United States and Hamas are on the same side on the issue of negotiations; this does not mean that the United States accepts Hamas' conditions, but it is forcing the continuation of negotiations in accordance with the interest of the terror army.
The longer the negotiations continue, the more they cause a slowdown in the intensity of the war against Hamas in Gaza, and their purpose is to bring about a de facto ceasefire and then an official one. What the Europeans are saying and trying to do is what the United States is pursuing as well.
With his supposed deliberations about who will enter the War Cabinet and who will not, Netanyahu is sending a message to the United States and Hamas: If the negotiating team headed by Mossad chief Barnea reaches the moment of truth of a deal, even a partial one, the prime minister would want a cabinet that could back such a deal.
This also sends the message that if there is no flexibility in the demands made to Israel, a hawkish and hardline composition will await you, because bringing in Gideon Sa'ar will strengthen the hawkish camp in the war cabinet, serving as a counterweight to minister Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot.
But the truth is that at the moment, it is impossible to predict what each member will decide at the moment of truth. The positions of Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will certainly carry extra weight.
Gideon Sa'ar is a good reinforcement in everything related to the continued conduct of the war. Even at the current stage, Gazan society is being weakened, and unexpected developments could occur. Sa'ar's entry into the war cabinet will strengthen the government and add to its survival prospects for the duration of the war. One of Hamas' goals in the negotiations, including a partial prisoner exchange deal, is to cause the toppling of the government in Israel. What various figures in Netanyahu's orbit think is not a consideration. If Sa'ar contributes to the legitimacy of continuing the war –that is a welcome addition.
The threats made by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are not credible. They will not give up their positions of influence in their respective ministries. Neither of them knows how to express their critical or oppositional positions with reasonable restraint. Smotrich viciously attacked the IDF chief. It's all meant for the microphones, and Ben-Gvir for his part regularly attacks Defense Minister Gallant. They must not be allowed to be allowed into the War Cabinet, which is a limited forum that decides on ongoing war issues.
They are members of the full Diplomatic-Security Cabinet, and there they will vote as they wish. Exercising political extortion around a sensitive body like that is not an invention of Sa'ar, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir. Already ten years ago, Yair Lapid engaged in this. A few years later, Naftali Bennett threatened to dismantle the government over administrative issues of the cabinet.
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