It's doubtful whether the average reader can follow the exhausting struggle between the Likud and Blue and White. Most of us are busy with summer vacation and interested mainly in the public health and economic crises. The battle over the cabinet regulations and the technical language involved cause people to stop listening. What do you need to know? That there are two drivers who took a drink for courage, got into their cars, and are speeding toward each other. If neither of them turns away, we are certainly on our way to a horrible collision, in the form of elections.
Who will blink? It depends on who thinks he has more to lose. At first glance, that would appear to be Benny Gantz. The polls make it clear that an election would bring Gantz and his party down to 10 seats at best, and in the worst case, many fewer, given the aggressive campaigns courting his target audience. Gantz's potential term as prime minister is the only thing that can lift him and his party off the mat. On the other hand, he is frustrated, angry, and feels that he has been duped. He's saying, "no more." He won't give in any more.
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The decision is Prime Minister Netanyahu's to make, and he is currently deliberating. His dilemma is clear: the government isn't functioning, it has no achievements to show the voters, and the sense is that this is no way to work and elections are inevitable no matter what. The question, "Why hold an election now?" becomes, for Netanyahu, "Why not?"
Declaring an election now means going to the polls before the evidentiary stage of his trials begins. An election at a later date would entail pictures of him in court and the threat of a winter wave of coronavirus, which could be more serious. If we add the fact that for the first time, polls are now projecting over 60 seats for the Right, even without Yisrael Beytenu, we will conclude that political considerations point to a new election.
So why not hold one? Because the country is in a state of disaster. Netanyahu's people repeat that he himself is saying that an election would be a catastrophe. If that is the case, caving in on the budget dispute would be a minor blow. Certainly, it wouldn't be a disaster. So it's clear that the decision is in Netanyahu's hands, and he hasn't made it. The budget, of course, is just an excuse.
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