With his return from Washington, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself at a critical juncture. The question looms: Will he, as experts hint, choose indecision – having lost his ability to make decisions, and allow his government to stumble towards its end, with conflicts between National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Sha'as leader Aryeh Deri determining the point of exit to elections? Or will he capitalize on his relatively improved standing among the right-wing and pursue a tripartite deal: returning the hostages, normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, and calling for elections as a history-maker rather than being consigned to its dustbin?
During his meeting with Netanyahu on Friday, former President Donald Trump emphasized the critical condition of the hostages and the urgency of their return. In his address to Congress, Netanyahu briefly touched on the hostage issue, mostly introducing those present in the chamber. He outlined two scenarios: an unlikely immediate end to the conflict if Hamas surrenders and releases hostages, or Israel's continued military campaign until Hamas's capabilities are destroyed and all hostages are returned. To Trump, Netanyahu expressed hope that military pressure would lead to a breakthrough.
Upon his return to Israel, Netanyahu arrives at a major decision point. He must choose between allowing his government to drift towards its end due to internal conflicts, or pursuing a strategic deal involving hostage return, Saudi normalization, and elections. The stakes are high, as his decision could either cement his legacy or tarnish it permanently.
He returns home at his highest point since the low of Oct. 7. He successfully navigated the summer conference, postponed discussions on the conscription law and the rabbis' law, maintained about 20 mandates for Likud in polls, and received applause for presenting the Israeli perspective in Congress. If he were to call for Likud primaries now, he would easily secure the party leadership and be able to discipline those undermining him. If, on the other hand, he decides to take the recess and see what happens in the fall, one thing is certain: he will be immortalized as the one who shattered the foundational Israeli myth – we don't leave wounded in the field, certainly not those kidnapped in their pajamas from their beds.
What are Netanyahu's political options? With the Knesset's summer recess, bringing down the government can only come from within the Coalition. He estimates that even if there's opposition from Ben-Gvir and Religious Zionist Party leader Smotrich to a hostage deal, and from the ultra-Orthodox to continued issuance of conscription orders – they won't leave the government. One option is to proceed with a hostage deal and hope his government survives.
The second option is expanding the government with New Hope. This would allow Netanyahu to reshuffle positions: he wants to move the defense minister and the chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, offering them other roles. A second "Gallant night" would be disguised as a round of appointments. Gideon Sa'ar, who was on the protest stages against the judicial overhaul, would become defense minister. Sa'ar, to avoid betraying the liberal camp, could demand the dissolution of the Knesset within five months – i.e., in January, and present it as an achievement. Does Sa'ar know that the prime minister intends to use him to move Gallant and Edelstein from their positions? Certainly. Does Sa'ar know that Netanyahu has the tools to ensure he'll crash in the Likud primaries? Indeed. And yet, Sa'ar hasn't ruled it out.
The third option is to proceed with a hostage deal and also announce early elections. As head of a transitional government, Netanyahu wouldn't be subject to criticism from his Coalition partners. He would neutralize the conscription law – there's no legislation during a transitional government, and the ultra-Orthodox would remain dependent on him. And he would go to elections against the backdrop of hostages returning to their families' embrace. It's hard to imagine that Netanyahu would squander the credit he gained in Washington on attrition battles between Ben-Gvir and Deri. Which path he'll choose, we'll know very soon.
