Israelis will soon head to the polls to vote in Israel's fourth election in two years. In a shift from past elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rhetoric is suffused with a desire for Arabs to be part of the full success story of Israel while also tapping into their frustration with the Joint Arab List.
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Statements by Joint Arab List Leader Aymen Odeh decrying the "Israeli occupation" is wearing thin on an Arab electorate eager to see a reduction of crime in their neighborhoods. Netanyahu's courting of the Arab sector mirrors the blueprint set forth by Republicans during the last election, whose focus on economic empowerment and security resulted in a larger slice of minority support.
The prime minister's softened image has earned him the backing of several prominent Arabs. Nazareth's Mayor Ali Salam cited the Arab establishment's failure to improve the economic health of its citizens as the reason for his endorsement of Netanyahu.
The prime minister proved successful in splintering the Arab vote through his rapprochement with Ra'am party leader MK Mansour Abbas, who split from JAL. Having previously met Netanyahu to discuss government investment in Arab communities, Abbas signaled his willingness to serve alongside a right-leaning coalition and is in favor of granting Netanyahu immunity from prosecution. Polling suggests that should Ra'am choose to support Netanyahu, its endorsement may prove decisive in Likud meeting the 61 seat threshold required to form a government.
Following through on his commitment to stem the rising tide of criminal activity in Arab communities, Netanyahu pledged 100 million shekels ($30 million) "to combat violence in Arab towns while promising to include an Arab Minister in his next government."
He increased police in Arab cities where the proliferation of criminal gangs and weaponry has resulted in a 50% jump in the murder rate among Arab Israelis. The recent murder of Mohammad Adas in Jaljulia follows the murder last month of nursing student Ahmed Hejazy who was gunned down in the city of Tamra. His death is one of over 130 Arab Israelis killed since January 2020 due to the criminal underground. Hejazy's murder sparked thousands of Arabs to come out and protest against the growing unrest in their communities.
Netanyahu's calculated understanding of the Arab electorate harkens back to former President Trump famously quipping in 2016 "What do you have to lose" when appealing to an audience whose minority attendees had tired of the paternalism and leftward lurch exhibited by the Democratic party.
Like Netanyahu, former President Trump is seen by many as a polarizing figure. Yet data from the 2020 election reveals "26% of the former President's voting share came from non-white voters-the highest percentage for a GOP presidential candidate since 1960." Reflected in these findings is a nine-point drop in Hispanic support for Democrats whose party's aggressive lobbying of progressive policies is on a collision course with an increasingly conservative Hispanic electorate. Republican lawmakers also account for "an expanded share of newly elected minority members than in the past.". 17% of Republican lawmakers in the 117th Congress are non-white compared to 10% from last Congress. And of the 16 Freshman Representatives who identify as non-white, nine are Republicans.
In a recent interview, African American Republican Congressman Byron Donalds, who represents a predominantly white district in Florida, explained that minorities are looking for a new political home focused on consensus issues rather than identity politics. A growing chorus of African Americans including Shelby Steele, Herschel Walker and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) are quelling the narrative that minorities are wedded to the Democratic party. A Pew Research Poll points to this fraying of support with 43% of African American men identifying as moderate and 25% characterizing themselves as conservative.
And it was the political right, both in Israel and the US, that broke new ground with the LGBTQ community by welcoming the first openly gay members to their respective cabinets. Rich Grenell was appointed by the Trump Administration as Director of National Intelligence and served at the helm of an institution which years ago would have disqualified him based on his sexuality. Currently serving as Minister of Public Security, Amir Ohana was the first openly gay minister in Israel's history when he was chosen by Netanyahu to serve as Justice Minister in 2019.
In the US, the cultivated perception of minority fealty to the Democratic party is being debunked. Whether that same trend can be applied to Israel where the decentralization of the political landscape stands in contrast to the two-party system in the US, will remain a mystery until election day.
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