The scenario of Ukraine's defeat is the catastrophic scenario that NATO members have feared since the outbreak of the war. However, it seems that this scenario is becoming more and more likely given several clear military indicators.
The most striking development, in my opinion, is the increase in talk and insinuations about the possibility of Ukraine's defeat among Western officials, experts, and pundits. French President Emmanuel Macron has warned of a Russian victory in the war in Ukraine, while some believe that averting defeat by sending alliance troops to Ukraine has become very likely, although this move is dangerous.
Others see that the West no longer has a choice but to send troops into battle or admit Ukraine's defeat and deal with it realistically. The Ukrainian army is facing the problem of manpower and equipment shortages after a series of recent defeats. Macron's comment that he would not rule out the deployment of Western forces in Ukraine, even if there was no NATO consensus, was not just a glib remark.
It mirrors an opinion that is gaining momentum in Europe and is triggering a fierce debate between supporters and opponents. However, no one questions the motives for seeking foreign troops to support Ukraine, which means that there is agreement that Kyiv is in a strategically difficult situation. Macron's words were not the only thing explaining the seriousness of the Ukrainian predicament.
Josep Borrell, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the EU, confirmed that the end of the conflict in Ukraine will be decided in the coming months. Therefore, the West should not postpone military assistance to Kyiv. Borrell added: "It's this spring, this summer before autumn that the war in Ukraine will be decided."
He discussed the possible consequences of a Russian victory at meetings in the US, warning that Moscow will not stop at this border and calling for haste in providing aid. Another issue is the suspension of US military assistance to Ukraine because Republicans refuse to pass the military aid package proposed by the White House.
One relevant point is that the US presidential elections are coming up in a few months Donald Trump is likely to be re-elected, which will have a bearing on Europe and NATO. The assessments of a Russian victory have not stopped there.
William Burns, the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency who returned from Ukraine, said at a hearing before the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that time is running out for aid. Ukraine will lose large territories in 2024 if it does not receive substantial financial and military aid from the West, he explained.
Burns estimates that additional US funding will help the Kyiv regime to hold out in 2024 and 2025, regain the initiative in offensive operations, and negotiate from a position of great strength. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto also announced that Ukraine would not win the confrontation with Russia and pointed out that the Russian army was gaining momentum on the front.
Douglas Macgregor, former advisor to the US Secretary of Defense, said that the resignation of US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland could indicate a US withdrawal from Ukraine. Macgregor said Nuland was] forced to resign. He added that her departure can be seen as a signal of the administration's readiness to move on from the disaster as quietly and quickly as possible in the months ahead.
He suggested that Washington could repeat the Vietnam scenario in Ukraine by giving up everything and leaving the country. He added: "So, we all understand that we will leave because we have no choice. The main thing is that we do not have the military power to resist the Russians in Ukraine. We could never do that."
In other words, a Russian military victory is no longer a matter of analysis and inference, but a hypothesis that is officially discussed in order to pursue crisis management, as this scenario was largely ruled out in the West as aid flowed heavily into Ukraine.
The West is in a critical situation forcing it to fast-track the settlement of mechanisms to support Ukraine and strengthen its defense capabilities, taking into account the expansion of the war outside Ukraine. Borrell confirmed that "analysts expect a major Russian offensive this summer, and Ukraine cannot wait until the result of the next US elections."
The real problem for the European members of NATO is not the defeat of Ukraine, the possibilities of its partition, or how to reach an agreement with Russia, but the consequences of Russia's military victory in Ukraine, how to deal with the Kremlin afterward and the impact of that victory on the fate of NATO, on US-European relations and on Europe's failure to provide for its security without the US.
Things are moving towards greater clarity, pushing for a European acceptance of the reality of the outcome of the war. Evidently, the Biden administration wants Ukraine to hold out until the election date and avert a decisive result in Russia's favor in the coming months. That is why it wants to give the Ukrainian army new momentum until next November.
Increasing prospects of a Russian military victory, however, may prompt the Biden administration to seek a way out to save face and negotiate with Russia rather than let it claim complete military victory, which could reduce President Biden's chances of a second term in the White House.
This explains the retreat or decline in American rhetoric about Russia's strategic and military defeat, and the discussion is now turning to other issues unrelated to the outcome of the war. Russia, for its part, is aware of the Western quandary.
Recently, President Vladimir Putin put the ball in the West's court by expressing Moscow's willingness to engage in serious negotiations to peacefully resolve differences, particularly in Ukraine. He added that these negotiations should not be an opportunity for the enemy to rearm. He continued: "We are, however, ready for a serious conversation, and we want to resolve all conflicts, especially this conflict, through peaceful means." Putin reaffirmed Russia's willingness to negotiate on this matter on the basis of the actual situation on the ground and not based on wishes expressed under psychological pressure.
Russia, also affected by the war, seems to be more ready for a political solution that would allow the West to give up its conditions and come to terms with and accept the reality rather than increase casualties as the fighting continues. Looking at the big picture, NATO faces a fateful test over the coming period.
