Whenever he has the opportunity, the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah ridicules and makes threats towards Israel. The most recent opportunity came just a few days ago, on the 30th anniversary of the assassination of his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawai, at the hands of Israel. In a provocative speech, Nasrallah threatened that his organization has the ability to turn the thousands of missiles in its possession into precision-guided missiles, i.e., to precisely harm every target in Israel. Nasrallah knows that fulfilling this threat is a red line from Israel's perspective, and will result in a disproportionate response.
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Despite this, he threatens. In the last few days, he was also proud of the launch of a UAV that flew for 40 minutes in Israeli airspace and returned unharmed to its base. But it seems that Nasrallah, more than wanting to demonstrate strength, is essentially fighting for his survival.
He is seeking to remain relevant as the main leader of the opposition to Israel and to be present in the public's consciousness, particularly in Lebanon. In the internal Lebanese space, the voices opposed to him and the influence of his Iranian patron are on the rise. Apart from his ally, the Amal organization led by Nabi Berri, most of the groups in Lebanon are critical of his organization's gradual takeover of the Land of Cedars.
The Lebanese forces, the strongest military force within the Christian camp, didn't hesitate to open fire on Nasrallah's people in an area under their control. Seven Hezbollah members were killed, but Nasrallah accepted this and until now hasn't responded.
Nasrallah has been compelled to soften his public opposition to efforts at demarcating the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel. He has made do with a clarification that the contacts between the sides won't lead to the normalization of relations with Israel, because he doesn't recognize them.
The new electoral law allows 250,000 Lebanese citizens living abroad to take part in the general election that is scheduled for May. Nasrallah doesn't have the capability to influence them from afar, and it's reasonable to think that most of these votes will go to the Christian camp, something that, to his dismay, is liable to change the parliamentary makeup.
In addition, his ally, President Aoun, is distancing himself from him in the run-up to the presidential elections in a few months, in the hope that he will succeed in convincing the Christian camp to crown his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, as his successor. Even in the Shiite camp there are more and more critical voices of Nasrallah's management of the increasing difficulties, with the situation in Lebanon on the edge of collapse.
In the Middle Eastern arena, Nasrallah is dancing on a razor's edge with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, who are demanding Hezbollah's disarmament as a condition for improving relations with Lebanon.
Iranian financial support is not what it was, and he is waiting for an improvement in the situation when Tehran will sign the nuclear agreement. More and more countries in the world are declaring that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, the Americans aren't hesitating to place sanctions on its members, and he himself has hinted that he won't automatically take part in an armed struggle between Israel and Iran.
All of these factors point to Nasrallah's weakening position. Some 30 years after the assassination of al-Musawi, the Hezbollah leader still faces obstacles that prevent him from completing his dream of taking control of Lebanon. For him, provoking Israel is a way of staying relevant. Therefore, in the face of events in Lebanon, which are not to his benefit, threats in Israel's direction are his way of staying relevant.
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