In an interview with Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen TV, and adoring interviewer Ghassan Ben Jeddou, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah allowed himself to escalate and raise the level of his threats against Israel over oil drilling activities in disputed waters.
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The head of the terrorist organization warned that Israel would not be allowed to drill at the Karish gas field unless it agreed on a maritime border with Lebanon and that it and foreign companies would not be allowed to start drilling at the same time. He also warned that if Israel began production, the matter could escalate into a conflict as early as September, and did not rule out the possibility of a full-out war.
There are two ways to understand Nasrallah's warnings. First, as a mere swagger, intended to pressure Israel into accepting the maritime border markings according to Lebanon's demands. So that Nasrallah can – among other things – claim this accomplishment if it is achieved, and later proclaim that only his threats could force Israel to fold.
This ties in well with the fact that a major part of the interview focused on rejecting criticism against Hezbollah and its leader. Such criticism is increased by the day in on-the-verge-of-collapse Lebanon, with the main claim being that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization that does not consider the good of the country its number one priority. Instead of helping to end the political crisis and rehabilitate the economy, the group intends to start a war with Israel. In his interview, Nasrallah insisted that he is a patriot of Lebanon.
However, there is another possibility that should not be overlooked, and that is that Nasrallah is preparing for a confrontation with Israel with regard to oil drilling. If so, according to Nasrallah, there will be a limited military conflict, which will only strengthen his position, and will not turn into an all-out war that he does not want.
Why is Nasrallah interested in the conflict being limiter? In the same interview, he said that US President Joe Biden does not currently want a war in the Middle East, and Israel will probably obey Washington.
But it is also possible that he has other and wrong reasons for such an assessment, as Israel is in the middle of a political crisis and at a time of government transition. The country is led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a new and inexperienced person. The IDF is too preoccupied with appointing a new chief of staff, who will only assume his role in January. In short, if Nasrallah does end up hitting the Karish gas field, there is no one in Israel at the moment to declare war.
If that is the case, Nasrallah should realize that he may be repeating the same miscalculations that got him in trouble in the 2006 Lebanon war. The same war at the end of which he admitted that had he known in advance how Israel would react, he would never have started it. He should know that this time he is playing with fire too.
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