Barring a dramatic change of events in the coming weeks, Iran will soon be able be a mere step away from becoming a nuclear threshold state.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
This does not mean that Iran will choose to produce nuclear weapons. There is a near-consensus among experts that it will actually avoid it so as not to provoke fresh economic sanctions, and perhaps even the threat of military action.
For all intents and purposes, however, reaching this stage will herald an ear in which Iran will possess enough knowledge and abilities to cross that line whenever it sees fit.
Iran already has almost all of the uranium it needs to produce a single nuclear warhead. In recent months it has accelerated enrichment activities to high levels of more than 60%, beyond which the transition to military-grade enrichment of 90% is relatively quick and easy to carry out.
It is also believed that Iran is also secretly making progress on other aspects of its nuclear program in order to maximize its capabilities before negotiations with world powers on a new nuclear deal resume.
Iran has been pursuing its nuclear ambitions with dogged determination and under difficult circumstances.
Following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and the "maximum pressure" policy that followed, the West assumed that Iran would seek every way to reach a deal and would agree to any term in order to do so, thus enabling the West to impose a much more rigid agreement that the original deal of 2015.
Some had also hoped that the heavy sanctions slapped on Tehran would lead to the collapse of the regime, or alternatively, that the Islamic republic's defiant nuclear progress would lead the US to attack it.
All these hopes were dashed one by one. Worse, the Iranians didn't even blink, but have been poking the Americans in the eye time and again by actually accelerating their nuclear program. Washington and Jerusalem both followed this process with concern, although it is estimated that it is reversible.
Foreign media reports also alleged that Israel took steps to delay and undermine Iran's plans, most notably the crippling of the power grid in Natanz.
It is believed that the facility sustained considerable damage but it seems Iran has found a way around it, replacing the damaged centrifuges at record speed.
This has left the US holding few good cards. Iran didn't fold as expected and once the Biden administration declared that all it wants is to reenact the 2015 deal – all but shelving the military option, as Biden all but stated in his UN address last week – the pressure now rests on Washington's shoulders. Thus rather than backing Iran into a corner and making it think countless times before breaching the pact, it is the Americans who have found themselves with their back against the wall, with no alternative plan.
Israel also finds itself in a problematic situation. With the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal, the IAF's plans for a potential strike were shelved. In fact, for the past eight years and until recently, this possibility was not on the table – operationally, politically and economically. It was only after the change of administration in Washington, and the realization that Iran was moving forward, that new attack plans began to be formulated, and appropriate budgets were approved for them.
But it will be quite some time until such a plan is feasible. Meanwhile, Iran can already make a mad dash forward. To stop this, a combined, mainly diplomatic but also operational move is needed, which will underscore what is at stake for the Iranians. According to reports, Israel has already targeted key individuals and components that were a part of the project in the past.
At the same time, Israel must knock on every door, enter through every window and turn every table to try and lead the West to show a tougher stance towards Tehran.
Even then, it is not sure that the Iranians will blink. For them, there is currently no reason to return to an improved agreement, as Israel had hoped would happen, and it is likely that they will also have reservations about the original pact. And yet, at this time, the bad previous agreement is better than having no agreement at all.
If that were to happen, Iran's nuclear progress will stop buying Israel the time it needs to outline a strike. And who knows, maybe Washington will also wake up and see the Iranian threat for what it really is.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
