In a series of what some people would call panicked interviews to various radio stations just before Passover, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett made it clear that the government is not collapsing and that it has a majority in the Knesset. The reality is somewhat different. The government doesn't have a majority. The coalition managed to stop the hemorrhage and prevent another MK from leaving, which would have tipped the scales in favor of the Opposition, but the bleeding can be expected to resume when the Knesset reconvenes 10 days from now.
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MK Ofir Akunis (Likud) said "every recess comes to an end," an iconic sentence that is being repeated by members of the Opposition.
The government doesn't have the majority to pass its bills, including Defense Minister Benny Gantz's pension bill, over which he threatened to dissolve the government a few weeks ago. When it comes to the state budget being approved as Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman wants, there's nothing to discuss. The coalition will try to find a way to MK Idit Silman's heart, or threaten her that she will be the next to be declared a "defector" after Amichai Chikli. At first, Silman won't vote automatically with the Opposition, and will evaluate every vote on its own merits. She will support ideological legislation, no matter what the cost, but when it comes to everything else – anything is possible. The Opposition won't try to make things difficult for her and won't present a spate of bills that will cause her to support them against the government's position.
Silman didn't want a ministerial portfolio. Serving as chair of the Knesset Health Committee and coalition chairwoman were her dream jobs. They were in her pocket until last week, when she decided to resign from the coalition and join the Opposition. The day after her announcement, the government was still trying to convince her to stay, but actually, from the moment she announced her resignation, Silman hasn't had any contact with her former coalition friends. They missed their chances to bring her closer to them, and there were plenty.
In the last few weeks, Silman has started to talk about the current government in terms of desecration and purity. As time went by, the government started to portray her as sullied, someone from whom they should keep their distance. One of the moves that accelerated this thinking was Lieberman's decision to cancel the stipends for ultra-Orthodox daycare. Silman went to Bennett and told him it would be a mistake – that it would affect people who had mortgages, who needed to earn money to pay off debt, and that while the government could cut back on its outlay for the Haredi sector, it should be done in a more humane manner. They should be prepared, and a different plan should be submitted.
Her words fell on deaf ears. The prime minister didn't understand what she wanted him to do about it. The same thing happened when she complained about the loss of right-wing values. Silman thought it was right to save the country from another election, but also thought that she and her fellow Yamina members would stand strong together to protect the Land of Israel, the settlements, and all the rest of the things they committed to doing over the years. But slowly, she saw Bennett moving away from all these concepts – not only not fighting for them, but also cooperating fully with the left-wing elements in his government. She started to wonder if Bennett was being carried away by his high office, or whether he had used the right-wing ticket to fulfil his dream of being prime minister, and these issues don't matter to or interest him. Thinking this way, Silman realized she could not go on, that the man she had followed had ceased to be trustworthy, in her eyes.
Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's circle of associates think that the government will fall during the upcoming session and that there is more chance of an early election or establishing a right-wing government under Netanyahu in the current Knesset. They are in contact with five coalition members, and the Likud thinks that one of them is closer to resigning than ever. However, at the moment, coalition members are demanding too much to join the Opposition.
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Despite what various cabinet ministers have said, Silman's decision was not the result of any promise to reserve her a place on the Likud list or a ministerial post. She could have gotten these from her coalition comrades. Experienced politicians know that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. She is aware that there is a chance she won't have a place reserved for her on the Likud list, that Yamina can declare her a defector, which would prevent her from being given a place on the Likud or Religious Zionist lists. But ultimately, when it came down to a choice between appointments and values, Silman opted for the latter.
Senior Likud officials think that the moment another MK joins the Opposition, and they think it's only a matter of time until that happens – the Likud will put forward a bill to dissolve the Knesset and it will pass a preliminary reading. Once that happens, MKs from New Hope – according to the plan – would prefer to form a new government under Netanyahu than hold another election. A few New Hope MKs have told their Likud colleagues that if they join Netanyahu, it would be under the Benny Gantz model. Gantz, they say, went back on his promise not to join a Netanyahu government but did not pay any electoral price. His public saw his gambit as hostile to Netanyahu, rather than serving his own interests. They said that this is what they will do if the only other option is another election.
While the Haredi parties agree that Netanyahu is the leader of their camp, United Torah Judaism chairman Moshe Gafni is not a happy camper. Unlike the young MKs, he still remembers when the Haredi parties would tip the scales and make kings. Back then, the Haredim weren't in the Right's pocket. More than once, they joined the Left.
Those days are gone – not necessarily because of the Haredim, but more because of the Left, whose capitulation to radical liberalism and progressivism no longer allows the Haredi parties to be part of it. Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, Ehud Barak – they were all left-wing leaders who were able to team up with the Haredim. A far cry from Nitzan Horowitz, Meirav Michaeli, and Yair Lapid.
Gantz has identified the trend and is the only leader of a left-wing party who keeps sending signals to the Haredim. In a series of recent interviews, he expressed regret over the Haredim not being part of the government, and said he misses them. Gantz is the only person outside the Opposition who can work with Gafni, but the offer isn't too tempting. Gantz could have been prime minister long ago if he's wanted. Now it looks like it's too late, and the Haredim are once again being pushed into the arms of the Likud and the Religious Zionist party, much to the regret of the UTJ leader.
