Oded Granot

Oded Granot is a senior Middle East and Arab World commentator.

Lebanon is sitting on a powder keg

Were it not for the actions of the Lebanese military, the shooting attack on pro-Hezbollah protesters in Beirut could have descended into an all-out civil war. 

 

Less than two decades ago, Hezbollah operatives assassinated then-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. It was a political assassination, and ever since, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has made every possible effort to thwart the international investigation into the murderer and prevent the killers from standing trial. His efforts have proven to be a success. Some of the assassins continue to walk freely to this day. Others have even been promoted within the terrorist organization.

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As the organization that controls the port in Beirut, Hezbollah also bears direct or indirect responsibility for the stockpile of ammonium nitrate that decimated significant portions of the surrounding neighborhoods last year. Despite immense pressure from the over 200 families of the victims of the blast, Nasrallah once again chose to impede the investigation, which was aimed at finding those responsible.

Under pressure from Hezbollah, the head of the first investigative committee was removed earlier this year. His successor, Tarek Bitar, is suspected by Hezbollah leaders of "political bias," in particular after issuing arrest warrants for Hezbollah ministers who served in Lebanon's government at the time of the blast and refused to appear for questioning.

When Nasrallah understood the deposition of the second committee head would be more difficult, he threatened to paralyze the fragile government that had just recently been formed in a desperate effort to overcome the severe financial crisis that threatens to crush the state. To bolster his demand Bitar be replaced by someone more "fair," Nasrallah sent his supporters out to protest outside the court, which refused to rule out his continued serve as investigative judge.

This is where the story takes an unexpected turn. Armed opponents of Hezbollah, of which Lebanon has many, climbed onto the rooves of adjacent homes and opened fire at the protesters. At least six people were killed in the attack.

The scene of the shooting attack is charged with historical significance. Not far away, near the Ain El Remmaneh neighborhood, the first incident between the Christian Phalanges and Palestine Liberation Organization activists took place in 1975 that would set off the Lebanese Civil War, a war that would be fought for nearly 15 years and take nearly 150,000 lives.

Also, last night, after shots were fired at protesters from the rooftops, gunshots were immediately fired from a Hezbollah-supporting Shiite Muslim neighborhood toward the adjacent Ain El Remmaneh neighborhood where members of the Christian-based Lebanese Forces, who are at the forefront of the anti-Hezbollah camp, reside.  

This could have deteriorated into mass ethnic clashes in seconds were it not for the Lebanese military, which may be the only relatively functioning institution in the country at this point. Nasrallah, far from interested in a new civil war, also ordered his activists to act with restraint.

But the blame game between Hezbollah-supporting Shiites and the Lebanese Forces as to the identity of the assailants is already underway. The investigation into the Beirut port blast has once again stalled. The new Lebanese government is faltering. A way out of Lebanon's economic crisis is nowhere in sight. There is tension in the air, and the entire country is sitting on a powder keg. 

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