Operation Guardian of the Walls is over. The IDF used Iron dome and the subterranean security barrier for defense, and mainly airstrikes for the offense, maximizing the tools at its disposal. However, achievements will be assessed in probes and conclusions will be drawn in order to prepare for the next round.
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It must be said that airstrikes alone cannot change the fact that Hamas will continue to build itself up and that its grip on hearts and minds is increasing, which could bring Israel into a multi-front conflict.
Israel has not made any major inroads in the PR war. It looks as if this area is being neglected, and it's unclear who is responsible for it. Hamas gambled and started the latest round using a different narrative than it employed in the previous ones. It was no longer about "resistance" and defending the Gaza Strip and its residents from "the siege," but rather about "protecting Jerusalem and hurting anyone who attacks it." The Palestinian public was fired up and we saw Arab Israelis take to the streets.
Ultimately, in war, the image of victory is a mental one. At the end of this round, Hamas managed to casts itself in the eyes of some of the Palestinian public as the defender of Jerusalem. The IDF's success in crushing Hamas' military capabilities has not been sufficiently publicized. Hamas is trying to create a new equation in which any attack on Jerusalem, such as evicting residents of Sheikh Jarrah or police entering the Temple Mount compound, will lead to Hamas rocket fire on civilian targets in central Israel. We cannot accept that.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came without any agreement. In the 10 days or so since it was announced, it has not been violated. Israel and Hamas have started negotiations in Cairo. Hamas, which suffered a major military blow, will dry to demand a truce that comes with a plan to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip and puts an end to the "siege." Its bargaining chips are the humanitarian situation in Gaza and its rocket threat to Tel Aviv. But Israel also has plenty of chips of its own. A renewal of hostilities could cause massive damage to what remains of Hamas' military infrastructure and the possibility of targeted killings of Hamas leaders is always hanging in the air. Israel's control of the crossings helps it maintain control. Israel is on thin ice as a result of pressure from the Biden administration and our neighbor, Egypt. The Israeli government must make it clear that any agreement will have to include the following understandings: that high-ranking Hamas leaders are not playing by the rules. They are war criminals who intentionally hurt civilians, and will be taken out. Aside from that, what happens in areas outside of Gaza, including Israel's capital, Jerusalem, is not and will not be part of any long-term arrangement.
Negotiations and a tough opening stance could lead to another round of fighting. The IDF needs to be ready for that after a quick review of the last round. The cabinet must soon discuss another round of fighting, identify clear targets for it, and approve appropriate plans for the IDF. Israel can hold on and do serious damage to Hamas. We must stand strong in the fact of Hamas' insanity and, if we need to fight another round, create the conditions to guarantee long-term quiet for communities in the western Negev.
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