Israel stands at a crossroads. The decisions it faces in the near future will have dramatic implications. They will directly impact the future of the war in Gaza and how things unfold on the northern border, and may also impact Israel's future as a whole for many years to come.
Seven such issues now require a decision:
The first is the matter of the captives and the possibility of another deal that would lead to the release of dozens of them. Israel accused Hamas of placing impossible conditions that undermine the chances of reaching an agreement, but the US administration, which is mediating between the parties, hinted in recent days that Israel is also complicating progress in the talks. Missing the current opportunity will not be forgiven: Israel abandoned the captives on October 7, and it must not abandon them again.
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The second decision is related to the planned operation in Rafah and the captives. If a deal is reached, it will include a ceasefire of about six weeks. In other words, during the month of Ramadan, there will be quiet in Gaza. If not, Israel would have to decide when and how to act in Rafah. The military challenge it faces in the city is negligible compared to two other challenges: preventing harm to relations with Egypt and moving the 1.4 million Palestinians concentrated in Rafah and surroundings out of harm's way.
The Humanitarian Issue
The third decision is also related to the first two, but exists independently of them: the humanitarian issue. The failure to bring in food last week, which resulted in the tragic incident in which dozens of Palestinians were trampled to death, led to harsh criticism of Israel and demands to increase aid. The US airdrops indicate a growing and dangerous disconnect between Washington and Jerusalem, which, if continued, may result in demands for a ceasefire that would undermine the Israeli effort to decisively defeat Hamas.
The fourth decision concerns the future of the strip. The aid crisis shows the need to identify and promote an entity that will deal with the population's needs, otherwise Israel will have to assume direct control (or let Hamas remain in power). Israel will have to decide whether to agree to the American proposal for a broad deal, which would include transferring control in Gaza to the Palestinian Authority as well as an agreement with Saudi Arabia and other Muslim states or reject it at the price of a severe regional and international crisis and question marks about the strip's future.
What to do in Ramadan?
The fifth decision concerns the campaign in the north. The fighting on the ground is getting more intense by the day, and without progress in talks toward a political settlement, Israel may slide into a broad war. For that purpose, it needs international legitimacy, which it currently lacks. This issue is dramatic in light of the growing distress of the tens of thousands of evacuees from the north, who have not yet been adequately addressed through the establishment of a dedicated agency.
The sixth decision is what to do during Ramadan, which will begin at the end of the week. The most burning issue is the Temple Mount, which always holds the potential for conflagration. The matter of Palestinians in the West Bank also requires a response: How can Israel limit the entry of workers into Israel given the threats of terror on the one hand, while allowing them to get employment and livelihood on the other?
The seventh decision is political, around the conscription law. The government will no longer be able to avoid dealing with the issue. Even if the High Court gives it another extension, it is committed to fundamental value choices. The price of fighting in Gaza and the north and growing security needs require all populations in the state to contribute their share. The current situation cannot continue If the government does not move forward with an agreed plan on its initiative, it may discover that a new common denominator has emerged for broad popular protest.
Loss of Credibility at Home and Abroad
Israel has never been required to make so many dramatic decisions at once in its history. They necessitate broad political consensus and great public trust in government decisions. Most concerning, our politicians are busy with other matters and are rapidly losing what little public credibility their decisions had. Examples abound: From the reckless conduct of the Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir on almost every issue, from the Coalition funds and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's incompetent handling of the economic crisis to Education Minister Yoav Kisch's decision to cancel the Israel Prize.
Kitsch's announcement is particularly infuriating for three reasons: First because science and research are ongoing and deserve recognition; second because the person responsible for educating our children is lying without missing a heartbeat; and third because signs are growing that the prize was canceled because someone wanted to prevent it from being awarded to Eyal Waldman – an entrepreneur, bereaved father and vehement critic of the prime minister.
The accumulation of these issues and the loss of credibility at home and abroad requires the prime minister and government to get their act together immediately and remember that the country takes precedence over their political interests. Avoiding this or choosing wrongly could cost us dearly.
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