The month of Ramadan is always a sensitive period for security officials. This year it has to be handled with even more care because Israel has to contend with four different arenas bubbling up with pressure all at once: the war against Hamas in Gaza; the heightened tension in Judea and Samaria; the attempts to inflame Israeli Arabs; and the ongoing clash with the Biden administration.
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The decision not to prevent Arabs who are Israeli citizens and Arab residents of Jerusalem from joining the Temple Mount prayers in a sweeping manner has major importance.
In recent years, riots have typically erupted during Ramadan, especially in the second half of the month, led by Hamas-affiliated radical youth from east Jerusalem neighborhoods, as well as lone-wolf terrorists mostly coming into the Old City comprising young people who smuggle fireworks, Molotov cocktails and even pipes filled with explosive powder resembling bombs onto the Temple Mount before Ramadan, sleep in the mosque and barricade themselves inside. This quickly descends into a confrontation with the police.
The main mission of the Israel Police on the Temple Mount is to prevent rioters from throwing stones or dangerous objects toward the Western Wall, which could lead to the evacuation of Jewish worshippers from the compound. Extreme Islamic elements, certainly Hamas, would love to see this happen, as this could be cast as a "victory image."
The storming of the mosque
The Israel Police has extensive experience dealing with events of this type. It is clear to anyone engaged in this task that images and videos of police officers stepping on prayer rugs and confronting those inside Al-Aqsa Mosque, broadcast live to the Arab world, would increase tensions and provoke much condemnation. Hamas would like Israeli forces to storm into the mosque, hoping this would lead to a regional conflagration; thus, such a move must be an absolute last resort.
Storming the mosque is not a tactical event; it will have broad strategic political and security implications; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that such a move would have to be first cleared by him, underscoring the gravity of the situation. In the current situation, there is no other choice. Events on the Temple Mount have a direct bearing on what happens in the Gaza Strip, with the discourse on a possible operation in Rafah in the background
The operation in Rafah
Maintaining pressure on Hamas – by destroying both its military and civilian dispositions – while eliminating its political, religious, and civilian leadership, requires the IDF to take aggressive action in Rafah, to conquer and mop the area, and target hundreds or even thousands of terrorists hiding in buildings, mosques and educational and medical facilities; and to deal with the most difficult component – the underground tunneling system.
The main working assumption is that Hamas operatives in Rafah have already shed their identifying marks and are hiding among a supportive population, armed with combat means and not hesitating to use civilians as human shields. IDF soldiers must be put in harm's way unnecessarily. Likewise, in order to try to minimize harm to Palestinian civilians as much as possible, it is crucial that they be allowed out of combat zones. But it is also worth remembering that with terrorists being embedded within the population; the inability to definitively distinguish between noncombatants and terrorists adds to the complexity.
The most critical question
Another issue is the pier that the US is establishing in the strip and the question of who will receive the humanitarian relief that is intended for the civilian population. The most complex and dangerous idea would be to allow clans or large families to manage the distribution of food. On the other hand, officials in the Palestinian Authority will also not be able to do so at this stage. Hamas is deeply embedded in the area, and it will threaten and even harm any entity that operates in its place. Therefore, a combination of forces from Arab countries and Gazan civilians, as well as Israeli military intervention, will be required. This, of course, is not a solution to the issue of the day after, which is the most critical aspect as Israel seeks a stable civilian governing authority to replace Hamas.
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