Exactly 50 years and one day after the Yom Kippur War, Israel experienced the surprise of October 7th. Just like then, Israel is required to act quickly, and it cannot have these hostilities end without a clear and unequivocal victory.
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Hamas planned this attack meticulously. For many months, perhaps years, they created a false impression as if they were deterred and refrained from responding to the operations carried out by the IDF against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and events in the West Bank and Jerusalem. In Israel, they bought into this calm and embraced a paradigm that Hamas would refrain from launching an all-out attack.
Meanwhile, the organization planned its Simchat Torah attack. A planned, integrated attack with ground, air, maritime, and subterranean elements. Infiltrators crossed the border in simultaneously at multiple points, knowing exactly where to go. The cities, kibbutzim, moshavim, and IDF bases that were attacked found themselves in the same situation facing Israeli troops on October 6, 1973, when the Egyptian forces breached the Bar Lev Line by crossing the Suez Canal. Cries for help, just like those heard over the radios from the fortifications back then, were broadcast live on Israeli channels in 2023.
Hamas, of course, knew that it was a holiday, meaning that the IDF was relatively lowering its guard and a significant portion of the forces were at home, with a complacent atmosphere in the settlements.
Such an operation requires early preparation with many collaborators. All of this escaped the view of the Israeli intelligence, which knew nothing.
In this regard, it is perhaps even more serious than the failure of 1973. Israel today is much stronger in intelligence and operationally, especially against a weak and constrained enemy like Hamas, and it should not suffer such a tactical and strategic surprise, which is likely to be accompanied by a broad Hamas defense preparation that will surely be implemented now as the IDF will penetrate deeply into Gaza as the war unfolds.
As I write these words, the events are still unknown. When the dust settles, Israel will have to grapple with the unbearable aftermath: a large number of casualties and injuries, and according to some reports, not an insignificant number of captives who are soldiers and civilians, including women and children. This requires Israel to immediately rethink its approach and switch to a different modus operandi.
Gaza cannot be more immune to any type of activity or response, and this conflict needs to end with Hamas defeated and its leaders dead or captured. If this does not happen, Israel will become a punching bag and will pay an unbearable price for the release of its captives.
But Gaza is only part of Israel's concern right now. The conflict this morning comes against the backdrop of a de facto war that has been going on in recent weeks in Judea and Samaria, with most of the regular army deployed to the territories. Now, the IDF must quickly mobilize tens of thousands of reservists and send them to the territories to free up regular units to fight in Gaza and to be prepared for the possibility of an escalation in the north.
In this respect, the northern front will now be the focus of Israeli concern. In recent months, there has been a worrying operational convergence between terrorist organizations, synchronized from Beirut under the joint leadership of Iran and Hezbollah.
Hamas holds active forces in Lebanon that have been organized under the seniority of the organization's Saleh Al-Arouri, and it is likely that they will try to act with rocket fire and possibly infiltration attempts into Israeli territory.
The question is how Israel will respond to such a move, and especially how Hezbollah will behave if Israel strikes Lebanon. Hassan Nasrallah warned more than once that his organization would respond to such a move, which could lead to a particularly grim and devastating war. Therefore, Israel must now use all its levers – diplomatic and security – to deter Hezbollah and dissuade it from action.
Another concern will be the Arab population in Israel, especially in the affected cities. The cases of ethnic clashes seen during Guardians of the Walls in 2021 are still fresh in memory, and the internal situation in Israel has only exacerbated since then.
The police and leaders of the communities – Jewish and Arab alike – now face an exceptional leadership and command challenge to try and maintain calm as much as possible. This will be an especially difficult task against the backdrop of the feeling that Israel is much more fragile than before; Gaza (and possibly Lebanon) facing an Israeli campaign that is likely to cause many casualties; and Hamas justifying its terrorist onslaught under the false title saving the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
Behind all this is Iran, trying not to be left out of challenging Israel. This Iranian effort received a push in recent weeks in an attempt to torpedo the advanced contacts for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel will now seek to rally moderate Arab states led by Egypt to the right, a not-so-simple task given the scope of the fighting and the expected casualties that will develop now in the region.
This war is expected to be anything but easy. In recent years, Israel has become a society less willing to pay prices, unlike the small country it was 50 years ago when its enemies in the south and north had launched a surprise attack.
The equilibrium was disrupted Saturday morning and Israel must restore it quickly. This is a leadership and command challenge of the highest order, in a period when Israeli society and the public are torn from within. All of this must be put aside now and we must be laser-focused on the ultimate mission – victory and restoring calm. After that, the time will come for drawing lessons and conclusions, and there will be many of those."
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