1. Saudi Arabia
The White House was quick to play down the Wall Street Journal report this week on a Saudi-US deal, stressing that negotiations were ongoing. While here in Israel some can't wait to see things finalized, the Biden administration is not rushing through this, even if they are enthusiastic about it.
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The ball is not only in the US court: When push comes to shove, it is Mohammed bin Salman who will have to decide on whether build on his new relationship with the Chinese to remain faithful to his US partners. He can't have it both ways when the Americans are trying to reclaim their regional standing.
President Joe Biden, has woken up and faced the Middle East reality, albeit belatedly, only after China has increased its presence and upped its economic game – thus challenging the US supremacy. In that sense, his efforts to have a deal with Saudi Arabia serve as the US path to renewed dominance could culminate with three different accomplishments: First, the kingdom will get protection and the US presence will be felt regarding Iran; second, America's return to the region will make it harder for Israel's enemies to drag it into a multi-theater conflagration; and third, China will be sidelined. Israel would benefit from all three.
If Biden were to successfully pass a Saudi deal in the Senate, he would have to get the Israelis on board. If Israel is happy, the GOP will be happy. The limited timetable for such a maneuver, due to the 2024 race shifting into high gear, plays into Israel's hands, and Biden knows that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can become his best campaigner in the effort to win over skeptical pro-Israel Republicans and have them vote for the Saudi treaty despite their political interest in derailing Biden's agenda. Thus, notwithstanding its cold shoulder to Jerusalem, the White House has a lot to gain from Israel doing its bidding for getting a Saudi deal over the line.
Israel has not shown too much consternation over the emerging details of the deal, including the weapon systems and civilian nuclear program for the Saudis (which would not undermine Israel's qualitative edge), as well as the symbolic gestures to the Palestinians. Israeli officials have been hearing that Riyadh is not going to let the Palestinians have a veto over the deal, but there is one stumbling block: Iran. Israel would not tolerate having a new Iran nuclear deal pave the way for Israel-Saudi normalization.
2. The Palestinian Authority
Israel has recently decided to officially save the Palestinian Authority from collapsing, mainly because of a US demand seeking to keep the status quo and lay the groundwork for future talks. The rationale is that to have negotiations one day, you must have a partner, so Israel has heeded the American request by keeping the terrorist-loving and convoluted Palestinian regime afloat. Despite the protestations of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who said he would not sign off on the measures, sources close to Netanyahu say that he has no choice. After all the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet voted to empower Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to implement those measures. Netanyahu is more than happy to set up committees to review various funding decisions, such as the one created this week after Smotrich withheld budgets from Arab Israeli communities. After all, Netanyahu invented this tactic.
The question is, how will Smotrich get off his high horse without causing another clash with the US, which depends on him to advance American interests in Israel. Or as a senior Israeli official (who is not considered close to him) put it: "The White House is making a big strategic mistake by boycotting the finance minister; it undermines its interests."
3. Judea and Samaria
Israel has law enforcement agencies, and all Israelis should get to enjoy the security they provide, including those who live beyond the Green Line. Likewise, a government that champions law and order must be as concerned over the lawlessness there as it is inside the Green Line.
The IDF is tasked with security in Judea and Samaria, and any criticism of the conduct of its generals should be directed at the ministers, most of which are considered pro-settlers. But for some reason, the settler leaders are afraid to voice criticism at the government.
The ongoing situation where settlers are engaged in violence damages Israel's image. The government and its head must wake up. So far Israelis have ridden the moral high road, but when hilltop youth take the law into their own hands, this inflicts damage on our reputation.
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