The Iranian nuclear program and Tehran's return to the negotiating table are currently the focus of Israel and the P5+1 – the UN Security Council's five permanent members; namely China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States; plus Germany. As a reminder, the 2015 deal spearheaded by the Obama administration mostly aimed to slow Iran's nuclear progress but didn't address the Islamic republic's ballistic missile program.
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Iran was given certain sanctions relief, yet certain restrictions were kept in place. In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal and Iran was hit with severe sanctions. Consequently, the Iranians began violating the deal and have significantly accelerated their uranium enrichment and continued their missile development program. With that, the economic sanctions appear to have badly damaged the Iranian economy and that following the assassination of former Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani – it also seems the activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have tapered.
The election of the Biden administration altered the agenda. Biden, who was vice president under Obama when the original deal was signed, wants to return to talks with the Iranians and to try securing a new deal. In Iran, too, the government has changed, and although the current leadership has adopted a hard-line approach, after complex talks it decided to return to the negotiating table.
Iran has unquestionably made strides in the uranium enrichment process and by all indications can make enough fissile material for a nuclear device in a relatively short period of time. However, it still isn't close to acquiring all the components necessary for a nuclear weapon. Without getting into too much detail, this seems to partially be at the root of the argument within the defense establishment.
A final chance for diplomacy
The European countries, Russia, and China, which didn't withdraw from the deal, remained in contact with Iran and have worked to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table. The Iranians played "hard to get" and will be entering these talks with their own conditions. The main condition is to advance one step at a time, with each step resulting in sanctions relief. On the other hand, the world powers want to finalize a complete deal and then sign. It's clear that the Iranians, who are good negotiators, want to employ salami tactics to achieve much more.
I recently partook in a delegation to Paris on behalf of the ELNET (European Leadership Network) non-profit organization, headed by Intelligence Services Minister Elazar Stern, during which we visited research institutes and met with government representatives and other senior officials to discuss and exchange ideas with them about the Iranian issue. This time around, it seems, the European countries – Great Britain, France and Germany – will be more active in drafting the deal and won't leave the reins in American hands as they did when Obama was in office. It's also safe to assume that Biden's administration, which is preoccupied with more than a few domestic matters, will allow the Europeans a far more significant presence at the negotiating table, even to the point of taking the lead on some of the issues.
Until recently, the brunt of Israel's Iran-related attention and activity was focused on the US. Any Israeli official involved in this matter visited Washington in recent months, while the European arena hasn't received the necessary attention.
The looming diplomatic initiative, if it comes to fruition, will undoubtedly be the last opportunity to try resolving the issue without the use of military force. Israel must establish a diplomatic task force to meet with European leaders in an attempt to influence negotiations with Iran. At the same time, Israel must prepare a military option and must make it clear to Tehran that this option will be utilized if Israel believes Iran is on the verge of breaking through to a nuclear bomb.
Clearly, coordinated action with the US and other countries is the best solution, but it's hard to assume such a coordinated front is feasible. Israel needs to reserve its right to independent military action as a last resort, and it must receive a blinking yellow light from the US, as opposed to a red light, which is enough for Israel to act.
The diplomatic process will have a better chance of success if an Israeli or Western military stick is waved in the background, to be used if Iran decided to break out to a bomb. Israel has to make this unequivocally clear in meetings with P5+1 countries.
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