These are difficult days, some of the darkest we have ever known. The coming days will require patience and perseverance – as we bury hundreds of our dead, hear the stories of the Israelis taken captive to Gaza, and deal with the pain of the families, we will have to press on with the fighting, which unfortunately will also exact heavy costs from us.
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The Israeli public needs to understand that we are at the beginning of the event, not at its end; although the opening blow dealt by Hamas, which caught Israel completely by surprise at an intolerable and unimaginable price, another, hard battle lies ahead. We will hit Hamas mercilessly, its leaders, commanders, and operatives are all legitimate targets and deserve to die.
The longstanding perception that Hamas prefers to undermine Judea and Samaria but to keep Gaza quiet has collapsed painfully and tragically. Israel's intelligence failed in a way that will require a thorough investigation in the future, but we do not have the luxury to stop and do this now, there is no such possibility – the continuation of war depends on strong and robust intelligence. I know the commanders; I trust them and I am sure that they will raise their heads and hurt the enemy as only they know how.
All options are on the table
Right now, our blood is boiling. The images of families slaughtered in cold blood, of innocent children, the elderly, women, of dozens of captives, enrage every single one of us. The anger and fury that we feel is felt by our military as well. This rage must now be channeled into exacting an unprecedented price from Hamas.
At the strategic level, three components are required to achieve Israel's goals: bringing an end to and replacing Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip; the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities, which enabled its operation; and creating the conditions to allow the release of the hostages.
The operational alternatives available to achieve these goals slide along a scale that sits between two undesirable options: At one extreme is an operation that ends with a ceasefire with Hamas (which has until now always been the alternative adopted by Israel), but this will not lead to the goal of ending Hamas rule; at the other end – the full occupation and demilitarization of the Gaza Strip – no matter how long it takes – until the destruction of Hamas' military wing. This second option will take a long time and will come with very heavy costs.
Between the two extreme alternatives, there are two intermediate options: a long and massive operation to erode Hamas' capabilities, or a limited ground operation (raids throughout Gaza or an operation to defeat and capture part of the Strip). To be clear, the intermediate alternatives are equally belligerent and aggressive; which method has been adopted should be left purposely vague.
One of Israel's goals in this war is to avoid being dragged into a multi-front war, which could split Israel's focus and attention and weaken its operation against Gaza. Therefore, we need to think about what will happen in the north. Forecasts and assessments are always difficult, and in this war they are impossible because our basic assumptions about Hamas have collapsed, and as a result, we must question all our perceptions.
A few weeks ago, at a conference held by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) marking the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, I tried to describe possible misconceptions. One of the examples I presented was the perception that a multi-front war would not develop from a Palestinian conflict, or in other words, that Hezbollah would not sacrifice itself for the Palestinians. What we learned on Saturday was that we need to rethink everything.
Creating a deterrent presence
This war is a Hamas-Palestinian initiative, not an Iranian move. Therefore, it can be assessed (cautiously of course) that Hezbollah will not want to be dragged into the war from a position of disadvantage (without the element of surprise), but there are several factors that could lead it to do so:
Solidarity with Hamas is expressed by symbolic fire by Hezbollah without the intention of entering the campaign, but which may lead to a dynamic of escalation; Israeli fire against Hezbollah in response to Palestinian fire from Lebanon, an event that which is likely to happen; a revenge attack by an Israeli citizen at a holy site, with an emphasis on the Temple Mount; a very unusual Israeli move in Gaza, such as a massive ground maneuver, extraordinary images, etc.
Negative Israeli momentum such as an Israeli failure that weakens our deterrence could also whet the enemy's appetite. We cannot react hysterically to any fire from the north as a multi-front war. Fire from the north is to be expected and we must prepare for this by shoring up our defense massively and creating a constant deterrent presence in the area.
A war for our home
Israel will win this war. It is amazing to see the solidarity shown by Israeli society, the solidarity that we have been missing so much lately. What a pity that we needed a national disaster to recall once again this manifest miracle called the people's army.
Our eyes well up with tears of emotion when we hear about attempts by Israelis stranded abroad to catch the first flight to Israel and volunteer for reserve duty when we see the rush to Magen David Adom stations to donate blood and more.
Much will be said about what we have done to ourselves in recent months, but maybe, just maybe, these terrible days will provide us with a reminder that we have no other army, we have no other people, our enemies are external and not within, and only together will we win.
This is a war for our home, in the full sense of the term, it is a battle for the home front. We will achieve victory only thanks to the very special nature of Israeli society.
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