US President Joe Biden said last week that a Russian invasion of Ukraine "could be the biggest invasion since World War II" and warned of the dramatic consequences of such a move, saying that if Russia goes ahead with its plans, he will consider imposing sanctions on President Vladimir Putin, personally.
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It is difficult to predict how the Russia-Ukraine crisis will unfold; if it moves from the belligerent rhetoric and the projection of force into an actual military confrontation, and if so – to what scope, nature, and duration.
The US statements on the crisis, its call for Americans in Ukraine to leave the country, and the steps it has taken together with its allies indicate that Washington genuinely believes that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could take place within days. On the other hand, the US's hectic diplomatic efforts to prevent hostilities are more than a standard move in the international "blame game" rather they reflect the fact that the Biden administration still believes that the Russian war plans can be stopped.
If, however, worse comes to worst, the Russia-Ukraine war will take center stage in the global agenda. The White House will have to prioritize dealing with Russia, and the echoes of war would project far beyond Europe's borders, affecting foreign policy, conflicts, and crises in other parts of the world. There is also the impact on world economy to consider, as well as a host of other ramifications – all while the world is reeling from the latest resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic.
However, even if the current crisis ends without a military clash rather with concessions from the US and the West, it could impact the global balance of power. The US will then have to fear the erosion of its deterrent image, while Russia will grow stronger.
Ukraine may be the one in the eye of the storm, but as is the case in any crisis that involves world powers, this conflict, too, is rooted beyond the arena in which it is being waged.
Russia seeks to regain its past glory and cement its position as a world power whose interest sets the global agenda. It wants to stop what it perceives as a shift in the regional balance of power in the wake of NATO forces' deployment in Eastern Europe and the ties the US is fostering with former Soviet Union states. The Kremlin's demands, as detailed in White House press announcements, include the withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe and a commitment that Ukraine will not be allowed to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
However, Russia's interests run deeper: it seeks to be free of the US sanctions that are crippling its economy. The list of sanctions is long and they have been exacerbated by the annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, as well as the allegations suggesting Russia interfered in the 2016 US presidential election and committed cybercrimes.
The issue of sanctions also came up in a conversation between Biden and Putin last December, and the two leaders agreed to hold a dialogue on the issue.
On the other hand, the United States and the West are troubled by Russia's actions near Ukraine's border, and other countries also striving to see Russia withdraw its forces from the area, as well as to create demilitarized zones and imposed arms restrictions.
Despite the massive deployment of forces on the Ukrainian border and the winds of war blowing across the region, there is still hope for a diplomatic solution that would prevent a military clash. Still, media reports suggest that no guarantees have been offered that satisfy Russia's views on NATO's deployment, and the fate of issues related to Ukraine remains unclear.
If a Russian invasion takes place and sanctions are subsequently imposed on Moscow, Israel may find that it is forced to choose sides. If that happens, Jerusalem must strive to maintain the good relations it has with all parties involved in the crisis – and formulate its position accordingly.
On the nuclear front, however, Israel's concern is twofold: it must ensure that the Iranians do not exploit the fact that world powers have diverted their attention to accelerate its dash to a nuclear weapon; while at the same time, it must remain vigilant so that the US won't use the crisis with Russia as justification for compromises vis-à-vis Iran.
Mapping the disputes between Russia and the United States raises a long list of complicated and difficult issues, including the Syrian issue that, while seemingly unrelated to this conflict, could provide an opportunity for some political success and potentially a way for both parties to roll back their rhetoric.
As an incentive for a comprehensive settlement that would lead to Iran and the Shiite axis forces exiting Syria, the US could offer Russia to ease sanctions, which would allow Russian companies to operate in Syria, rehabilitate infrastructure and meet other needs currently provided by Iran.
This would be a win-win situation for Israel and most of the Sunni countries. True – this is a relatively tiny issue in the larger scheme of tensions between world powers, and it does not touch on the cause of the current crisis, but it can be a positive introduction to other negotiations.
It is also possible to subscribe to a more cautious approach that prefers completely disconnecting the conflict in Europe from the disputes in the Middle East. In that case, however, it is worth remembering that when mapping out the interests of world powers, everything is included.
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