The nuclear talks between world powers and Iran are moving forward, and will soon reach the decision-making stage. To borrow a soccer analogy, the sides are done feeling each other out and are now familiar with and aware of the other's defenses. The Iranians, masters of negotiation, tried conditioning the continuation of talks on the removal of sanctions and were rebuffed. It appears this time the Europeans (mainly Germany, France, and Great Britain) are more involved in the talks, while the Americans, who spearheaded negotiations under former President Barack Obama, are working more collaboratively with the other global powers. It seems that despite the mutual threats and prevailing sense that the talks were headed toward failure, an agreement will ultimately be reached that will restrict Iran's pace of uranium enrichment and give Tehran what it wants with the removal of most of the draconian sanctions.
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Iran's long-term strategic interest is to possess a nuclear weapon. In the short term, however, under the yoke of sanctions and a sputtering economy that threatens the regime's survival, Tehran must get the sanctions lifted and help its economy. A tactical short-term concession on behalf of a long-term strategic goal is a known method of Islam. The US, under a president with plummeting approval ratings, needs an achievement to improve his standing. The Chines and Russians, which regardless don't abide by the economic sanctions, will be glad to return to doing legitimate business with Iran – such that ultimately, all sides have an interest in reaching a deal.
Israel is in the toughest position of all. If a deal is reached, currently sanctioned funds will be unfrozen, allowing Iranian terror and influence to increase and run amok across the Middle East. We can expect the situation in Syria to change as well, and for the Iranians to apply even more pressure in an effort to cement their influence there. The Iranian threat won't be eliminated and will remain close to the threshold point. The Iranians will be able to secretly move ahead with several aspects of their nuclear program, which will bring them closer to nuclear breakout capability if and when they so choose.
The sword is almost on Israel's neck
As for an Israeli military strike: It has the ability to attack Iran, and will soon have no other choice because the proverbial sword is almost on its neck. It appears this moment is fast approaching. We cannot rely on American military intervention, which most likely will not come. When Israel has faced significant strategic threats in the past and taken the initiative, the IDF has emerged successful and the threat was removed. The preparations currently underway are meant to improve the IDF's attack capabilities and finalize a better plan of action.
The IDF must receive a clear directive from the Israeli government, which defines the objective: Significant and devastating damage to Iran's nuclear program; and the target date: fall of 2022. Despite the difficulties, it seems the time has come for the IDF to prepare a strike plan in conjunction with the country's intelligence services. Operationally, the IDF is capable of hitting Iran's nuclear program. The plan should be diverse, include elements that will catch the Iranians off guard, and inflict heavy damage on their nuclear facilities and air defenses.
At the same time, Israel must prepare for an Iranian response from its soil, and from Hezbollah as well. There is no reason for panic – the talk of war with Iran is overblown. Israel has been fighting Iran for over two decades, and the IDF has the ability to continue coping with the Iranian threat and hitting Hezbollah hard. Beyond the operational preparations, Israel needs to prepare a diplomatic plan to legitimize a military strike and soften the international reaction.
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