Syrian President Bashar Assad's alleged use of chemical weapons against his own people has brought the media focus back to the truly dangerous arena in the Middle East: Syria.
While this may not have been the first time the Syrian Army used chemical weapons, it is nevertheless a negative development, as it is indicative of Assad's growing confidence. Encouraged by his victories in the civil war, he feels secure enough to use all the tools at his disposal, including the chemical weapons he had vowed to destroy, to put down the final pockets of resistance.
Assad draws his strength both from the protection provided by Russia, but also from the vacuum left by the U.S. on the northern front. After leading the coalition that defeated the Islamic State group, thereby doing Assad's dirty work for him, the United States decided to it would not seek to actively shape the future face of Syria.
The result: complete Russian hegemony in Syria, and by implication, Lebanon, but also the strengthening of other forces in the region, like Iran and Syria. Israeli defense officials have warned that a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Ankara, that saw the three leaders pledge to "speed up their efforts to ensure calm on the ground" in Syria was a "green light for Iran to continue its efforts to establish itself" in the country.
While sympathetic to Israel's concerns, the United States does nothing about them. Russia listens attentively and then lays down with the enemy, even selling it advanced weapons. The only ones who genuinely understand Israel's concerns are the moderate Arab countries, but it is doubtful they would be able to lead an effective initiative against Iran's activities in the region.
The significance of all this is that, in the future, Israel will need to act alone when the red lines it has drawn, whether they be the Iranian buildup in Syria or the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah and terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, are crossed. While this activity is carried out clandestinely for the most part, there is clearly potential for a flare-up, as was reflected in the Military Intelligence Directorate's annual assessment, which concluded that while Israel was unlikely to go to war in 2018, the probability of an isolated, spontaneous escalation of hostilities as a result of miscalculations by one of the sides would increase significantly as a result of recent developments in the north.
