Less than four years ago, the consensus among political commentators was that the US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the relocation of its embassy to the city would ignite the Middle East. Similarly, a year and a half ago, they dismissed the Abraham Accords. And yet today – March 27 – the foreign ministers of some of the most important Arab countries gathered in Israel for a historic summit initiated by Jerusalem.
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We live in a different political world.
One representative will be missing from the meeting that will be hosted by Foreign Minister Yair Lapid – from Saudi Arabia. This absence reflects the complexity of the new strategic arrangement of the Middle East, with the US relinquishing its central role in the region and becoming a kind of observer. The reason for the Israel-led preparations of the Sunni Arab states is the Iran nuclear agreement that is expected to be signed in Vienna sooner or later.
"When an agreement on the nuclear deal is reached, a likely possibility, it will be an absolute win for the Iranians, not different from the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan and a triumph for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps," Hussein Agha wrote in Foreign Policy news magazine.
The Iranians do as they please with regard to hegemony, and are unafraid of harsh rebuke by the United States. Moreover, the attacks – such as those perpetrated by the Houthis against Saudi oil facilities – were meant to hasten US nuclear negotiators.
Israel is not assuming an unprecedented role. To some extent, it is transforming into a link between the US and some Arab counties. This is especially true with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, whose leaders do not answer President Joe Biden's phone calls requesting assistance in the Ukraine war.
This is an unusual and unprecedented situation. The good news is that the Arab-Israeli conflict is largely over, as the architect of the new structure in the Middle East – former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – said. The bad news is that Israel is at the epicenter of Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons and achieve regional supremacy.
Already in the near future, Israel will face new restrictions in its operational activity. Former Israeli Ambassador to the US Ron Dermer said two weeks ago that the moment the nuclear deal is signed, Washington will begin to pressure Jerusalem to stop its policy of targeting Iranian sites in Syria. The Americans are leaving.
But they are not leaving Israel, in the bad sense of the word. US generals have already hinted that Israel's operation activities in the entire region could put the lives of American troops at risk. Reminds one of the statement former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency David Petraeus gave during the Obama administration.
The nuclear deal, when signed, will limit Israel's operational activity further, because the Bennett-Lapid government decided in the very beginning to tie its fate to President Joe Biden's democratic government.
Many wonder why Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Lapid suddenly rebuked Washington for considering removing the IRGC from its terrorism blacklist as part of the agreement. After all, they are silent about the main issues of the deal.
According to Agha, the Revolutionary Guards are the heart of Tehran's nuclear project, which is being carried out under their auspices, and that contrary to what Washington thinks, the main power struggle in the Islamist republic is not "between extremists and moderates, or between fundamentalists and reformists," but "between the IRGC and the official state and its military."
Israel is entering a time when destructive forces in the region are gaining legitimacy: the Iranian nuclear project, the IRGC and Syria, which is beginning to return to the Arab world. Sunday's summit of foreign ministers give Israel a boost, but the answer to the developments on the ground lies in its military and intelligence power.
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